PLUNGING US home sales are having a ripple effect on consumer spending, as fewer Americans are moving into houses that need to be outfitted with furniture and appliances.

The effects are visible across the economy. Spending on furniture and related items fell nearly 12 per cent from the year-earlier period in October. Home goods sellers including Z Gallerie and Serta Simmons Bedding have filed for bankruptcy this year, citing weaker demand, and more are probably coming. Williams-Sonoma’s chief executive said last month that consumers are hesitant to spend on expensive furniture. Home Depot, the hardware and appliance store, said its revenue will likely drop this fiscal year.

The Federal Reserve last year started a rate hiking campaign to tame inflation, and slowing the housing market is a key way to make that happen. In October, mortgage rates reached their highest level since 2000, helping to make housing the least affordable since at least the 1980s.

On Thursday (Nov 30), the effects of low affordability became even clearer: a gauge of pending sales for existing homes reached its lowest level since the measure started in 2001. Home loan rates have started drifting lower amid growing hopes the Fed will start to expand the money supply again next year, but it could take years for the housing market to return to normality.

“It’s just less affordable to buy a house today than it was a couple of years ago when rates were much lower, and that’s closed out a certain amount of spending that would have otherwise happened,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation.

The average household shells out US$8,000 more on home-related goods and improvements in the two years after a home purchase, according to a study published last year by professors including Efraim Benmelech at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management.

Falling revenue

Without that expenditure, retailers are feeling the pain. Williams-Sonoma, owner of Pottery Barn, estimated last month that its revenue will fall as much as 12 per cent this fiscal year. Ethan Allen Interiors, a maker and seller of furniture, posted a 24 per cent decline in sales in the latest quarter, due in part to slowing demand.

Some firms have struggled to navigate the broad decline in consumer expenditures. A series of companies that provide home furnishings have sought bankruptcy protection this year, including Z Gallerie, Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, and discounter on Tuesday Morning. Pillow maker Pegasus Home entered bankruptcy in August, mattress wholesaler Serta Simmons did so in January and the photo frame seller NBG Home sought protection in February.

“From a creditor and trade vendor perspective, there’s concern in the industry,” said Jordana Renert, a partner in the bankruptcy department at law firm Lowenstein Sandler, referring to investors in stores that sell decor. “Until new home purchases pick up or mortgage rates decrease, I think the home-goods furniture industry may continue to see a pause in consumer spending and an increase in chapter 11 filings.”

With mortgage rates having risen as much as they have, it’s not clear when home purchase volume will resurge. Many homeowners are unwilling to sell, in part because that means letting go of the cheap mortgages they locked in during the pandemic. That’s translated to relatively more of the transaction volume coming from new home sales, where developers are looking to offload homes they’ve built.

More than 60 per cent of US home loans have rates below 4 per cent, according to data from Black Knight, while the latest 30-year Freddie Mac mortgage rate is closer to 7.2 per cent. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates relative to where borrowers have locked in leads to a 9 per cent decline in the rate at which people move houses, according to a study by professors including Julia Fonseca at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. If a homeowner, for example, were thinking about changing jobs, the new position would have to pay much more for the consumer to be willing to give up their mortgage.

“Lock-in can prevent households from pursuing labour market opportunities that would have been worthwhile otherwise,” Fonseca said.

Homebuilder pressure

Lofty interest rates are not only crimping activity on the demand side, they are also pushing up prices on the supply side of the market and are threatening to keep them elevated for some time, said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders.

The interest rate that homebuilders are paying to finance the construction of single-family homes is close to 13 per cent, Dietz said, and material costs have risen alongside inflation. That has made it more difficult for builders to break ground on new homes now, which could squeeze supply for two to three years. The impact could be felt across the economy for some time, according to Dietz.

“If you take all the challenges in the housing market and think of them almost as taxes on new housing supply, those taxes are restraining economic growth,” Dietz said. BLOOMBERG

Source : TheBusinessTimes

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WASHINGTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) – More U.S. commercial property owners are expected to turn to commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) lenders next year instead of banks, according to a new Moody’s report.

Elevated interest rates, volatility in property values and weakened cash flows have led to tightened lending standards by banks and other commercial real estate (CRE) lenders through 2023.

Many new and existing borrowers are instead turning to CMBS, which pool individual loans and which have seen continued demand from investors focused more on the overall credit quality and yields of those securities’ loan pools, according to a Moody’s report published Wednesday.

Multi-loan (conduit) and single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) CMBS loan issuance has declined overall this year from 2022 levels. But the second half of the year has seen a spike in SASB and CRE collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance, Moody’s found.

About 19% of $42.3 billion in performing CMBS conduit loans maturing next year carry high default risk. But CMBS investors, attracted by 10% or greater yields on these loans, will help them achieve refinancing even as lenders have gradually required lower outstanding loan balances as a percentage of property value.

Landlords have struggled this year to keep up with rising coupon rates on mortgages, which most recently averaged 7.21%. That is double the average rate of 3.62% in 2020, according to Moody’s.

The hardest-hit commercial properties have been offices, which have experienced rising vacancies since more employees began working from home during the coronavirus pandemic.

About $12 billion in CMBS conduit loans maturing this or next year have already entered delinquency or special servicing, in which a third party helps the borrower work out a solution to avoid default.

While overall CMBS property yields will remain elevated in 2024, roughly $14.7 billion in SASB CMBS carries yield less than 8% and faces greater challenges to refinancing.

In the event of trouble refinancing, these and other CRE loans will face low interest from buyers. Moody’s expects transaction levels to remain low, matching 2021 levels, as wide bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers have led to lower sales prices.

Borrowers’ debt service coverage ratios – their ability to make debt payments – have also declined closer to one-for-one. This has led to an uptick in interest-only loans as CMBS and other lenders continue putting capital to work, according to Moody’s.

Source : Reuters

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US EXISTING home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 13 years in October as the highest mortgage rates in two decades and a dearth of houses drove buyers from the market.

Existing home sales tumbled 4.1 per cent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million units, the lowest level since August 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday (Nov 21). Home resales are counted at the closing of a contract.

October’s sales likely reflected contracts signed in the prior two months, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to levels last seen in late 2000.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would slide to a rate of 3.90 million units. Sales fell in the Northeast, West and the densely populated South, but were unchanged in the Midwest. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of US housing sales, plunged 14.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in October.

“Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.

The rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.31 per cent in the final week of September, before peaking at 7.79 per cent in late October, the highest level since November 2000, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

Though it has since retreated following data this month showing the labour market cooling and inflation subsiding, the rate averaged a still-high 7.44 per cent last week.

There were 1.15 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 5.7 per cent from a year ago. At October’s sales pace, it would take 3.6 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.3 months a year ago.

A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand. With supply still tight, multiple offers were the norm in some areas, keeping house prices on an upward trend. The median existing house price increased 3.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$391,800, the highest for any October.

Properties typically remained on the market for 23 days in October, up from 21 days a year ago. Sixty-six per cent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers accounted for 28 per cent of sales, as they did a year ago. This share is well below the 40 per cent that economists and realtors say is needed for a robust housing market.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 per cent of transactions compared to 26 per cent a year ago. Distressed sales, including foreclosures, represented only 2 per cent of transactions, virtually unchanged from the prior year.

Source : TheBusinessTimes

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A Greenwich, Connecticut, estate—the last of a swath of hundreds of acres once owned by the Rockefeller family—has hit the market for $8.995 million.

The property combines two parcels for a total of 4.24 acres, including a five-bedroom Colonial-style home, according to the listing with BK Bates of Houlihan Lawrence, who brought the home to the market for the first time at the end of October.

“After being passed down for generations, the prewar estate is the last of the Rockefeller family land [in Greenwich] to hit the market,” she said in an email. “Situated on two parcels on a very prestigious street within walking distance to town, this gorgeous, private property is a very rare opportunity for a buyer.”

Around the turn of the 20th century, the Rockefellers owned about 500 acres in Greenwich. The family sold about 80 acres of the land to billionaire Len Blavatnik for $32 million last year, listing a roughly 54-acre parcel—the last large portion of the estate—for $21.5 million, in November 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported at the time. Greenwich Academy, a private school for girls, purchased that acreage for $18.35 million in August.

Ann Rockefeller Elliman, the daughter of Avery and Anna Rockefeller and the great-grandniece of industrialist John D. Rockefeller, most recently owned the estate, according to records with PropertyShark. She was married to Edward Scales Elliman, the son of Douglas Elliman, founder of the real estate company of the same name. Ann Rockefeller Elliman died in June at age 96. Representatives of her estate declined to comment.

The main house dates to 1949 and was renovated in 2022, according to the listing. It has a traditional floor plan, featuring a large living room with oversized windows, hardwood floors and a corner fireplace, listing photos show. There’s a formal dining room connected to the living area, and a separate kitchen with a family room and a breakfast nook on the other side. The ground floor also boasts a wood-clad library.

There are five bedroom suites on the upper level, although one—adjacent to the main bedroom—is currently used as an office, according to the floor plan. Combined, the suite includes two bathrooms and two walk-in closets.

Outside, there’s an expansive lawn, mature trees and a pool, surrounded by stone walls.

Source : MansionGlobal

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In the ever-evolving global investment landscape, investors are continuously drawn to new opportunities that offer value, stability, and growth. Dubai, known for its exceptional quality of life, unmatched safety, strong connectivity, tax benefits, and business-friendly environment, has emerged as a prime destination for international investors, particularly those from the United States.

This burgeoning appetite is not incidental but a calculated alignment with value, opportunity, and security that the city offers. When juxtaposed with other global cities, Dubai’s property prices not only stand competitive but also promise appreciable returns on investment.

Prime property prices in Dubai are notably cheaper by 20 percent-80 percent when compared to major cities such as Monaco, Hong Kong, New York, London, Geneva, Paris, Beijing, and Tokyo, even amidst a massive increase in rates during the post-pandemic period. A million dollars can secure a luxurious property in Dubai with an area of over 100 square metres (sqm), in stark contrast to 17sqm in Monaco, 21sqm in Hong Kong, and 33sqm in New York.

Moreover, the introduction of investor and golden visas through property acquisition has further sweetened the investment proposition, ensuring investors not only gain financial returns but also a gateway to global mobility and an enhanced lifestyle.

With a substantial diaspora from the MENA region, the U.S finds a cultural and economic bridge in Dubai, making it easier for investments.

A top FDI destination

Dubai’s ascension as a global leader in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), especially in future-oriented sectors, is noteworthy. The city, under the visionary leadership of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister, and Ruler of Dubai, has forged dynamic partnerships with international investors, accelerating innovation and creating enduring economic value.

In 2022, Dubai not only maintained, but solidified its position as the leading destination city globally for greenfield FDI projects, with 837 announced projects, according to the Financial Times ‘fDi Markets’ data. This achievement, amidst global uncertainty and economic challenges, is a testament to the city’s competitive strengths and attractiveness.

Moreover, the comprehensive strategy of the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33 Agenda), which aims to double the size of Dubai’s economy over the next decade, is set to further elevate the emirate’s status as a preferred destination for major international companies, investment, talent, and visitation.

In 2022, the US ranked third for FDI in Dubai, accounting for 11 percent, with many investors having recognised and leveraged the multifaceted opportunities offered by this vibrant city. The strategic geographical positioning, coupled with a robust economic and technological infrastructure, makes Dubai a pivotal axis in the global economic machinery.

As we navigate through the complexities of global investment terrains, Dubai emerges not merely as a viable but as a compelling destination for U.S. investors. At Berkshire Hathaway Home Services (BHHS), we are not only witness to this transformative investment wave but are also active participants, facilitating U.S. investors in navigating through Dubai’s promising property market.

Source : Zawya

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Cook County property tax bills will hit the mail Nov. 1 and are due Dec. 1, just in time for the holidays. The median residential bill went up 7.2% to $4,958.

But the highest increases were in the north and northwest suburbs, where property tax bills increased by 15.7%, the largest increase by percentage in 30 years. In Hanover Park, the median residential property tax bill went up by 19%. In North Lake, a western Chicago suburb, the median residential bill increased by 27%.

Tax bills went up for 81% of property owners countywide, 17% saw their bill drop and 2% saw the same amount on their bill.

One of the reasons for the increase was a state law allowing taxing bodies such as local governments to “recapture” dollars refunded to property owners in appeals. The tax burden shifted to residential property owners after commercial properties, hit by large reassessments in 2019, had their property values cut by nearly 20% during the appeals process.

In total, Cook County property taxes rose by more than $909 million from 16.7 billion to $17.6 billion.

Homeowners represent nearly $600 million of the increase and commercial property owners owe more than $300 million more in property taxes. Of the 940 taxing units in Cook County, 72% raised taxes.

Property owners who want to see their bill before it arrives in the mail or pay it can see it online at cookcountytreasurer.com.

Source : IllinoisPolicy

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A beachfront compound near San Diego has sold in an off-market deal for $44.1 million, according to San Diego County Assessor Jordan Marks.

The “monumental” deal is a record for the county, said Marks, who is also the county recorder and clerk.

The compound, on just over an acre, is located in Del Mar, a few houses down from a property purchased by Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and his then-wife, Melinda French Gates, for $43 million in 2020, records show.

The seller is a corporation tied to descendants of C.E. Toberman, a California real-estate developer who helped build Hollywood landmarks such as Grauman’s Chinese Theatre, the Roosevelt Hotel and the Hollywood Bowl. The buyer’s identity is unknown.

Located on Sandy Lane, the property has a ranch-style main residence, a guesthouse and a detached apartment, with eight bedrooms combined, according to real-estate agent Brian Guiltinan of the Guiltinan Group, who represented the buyer and seller. There is also a tennis court and swimming pool.

“The real significance to the property is it is over an acre on the sand, with 110 feet of frontage” on the ocean, said Guiltinan. It is the largest parcel on the beach, he said.

Toberman built the house in the 1950s, according to Wendy Fletcher Dyer, one of his great-grandchildren. Dyer is president of Investors Leasing Corp., which owns storage facilities in Nevada and California and is the legal owner of the house.

Dyer, who was raised in a house four doors down, said at one point her relatives owned seven houses on the street, all of which have been sold off over the years. She said her late father, Charles “Kim” Fletcher, lived in the house with her stepmother, Marilyn Fletcher, until his death in 2019. Kim Fletcher was president and CEO of Home Federal Savings & Loan in San Diego. After he died, Dyer said, she and her siblings voted to sell the property.

“We enjoyed the house and beach for decades and we made a lot of good memories,” she said, but beachfront properties are expensive to maintain, and she and her siblings have their own lives. “This allows another family to move in and make their own memories, and we’re excited for them.”

Last year, however, Marilyn Fletcher alleged in a lawsuit that Investors Leasing Corp. and its shareholders tried to evict her from the property in order to sell it. Her complaint alleged that the shareholders removed her belongings from the guesthouse, changed the locks and posted a “No Trespassing” sign. In July, a San Diego court ruled in favor of the shareholders.

“It was an unfortunate situation, but it was resolved in ILC’s favor,” Dyer said.

Marilyn Fletcher couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Source : MansionGlobal

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MIAMI – An analysis done by Global Commercial Real Estate Services reports the cost of buying a home is at its most extreme since 1996.

That struggle is being felt by one local perspective homebuyer who tells CBS News Miami’s Chelsea Jones, that trying to find a property in this market is challenging.

Samuel Tuckerman is a native of Miami and lives downtown. Two years ago, he found a home at a great price. “Found a pretty good opportunity in North Miami for like $280K. Unbelievable deal for a penthouse,” he said.

The market was competitive and ultimately someone else got that home. So, instead of buying, Tuckerman decided to rent.

The Wall Street Journal cites an analysis done by CBRE, which found the average new monthly mortgage payment is 52% higher than the average apartment rent.

Local real estate expert Christopher Molina says there’s more to consider.

“That might be correct in that small, isolated area called New York. However, South Florida has many market forces working in its benefit. Homes have gone up 5% this year alone,” said Molina.

He says tax write-offs, deductions, and home equity can help lower costs in the long run.

Ultimately, he believes the time to buy is now.

“The market’s settled. You can make more offers. You can make lower offers; you can actually find the home you love. Yeah, it’s going to have a higher rate, but you refinance later,” Molina said.

However, for people like Tuckerman renting is the option right now.

“With these high-interest rates, it makes it really challenging to commit to something even though you could potentially refinance next year if they start to lower rates.”

Molina says inventory is limited in South Florida and will continue to be, so prices are likely not going to drop. He advises first-time homebuyers to look into programs and buy property.

Source : CBSNews

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ASHLAND — Property values in Ashland County have increased, on average, by 36% over the last year.

Ashland County Auditor Cindy Funk recently sent 25,000 letters to property owners detailing how much their properties have increased since 2020.

The state-mandated process is known as the triennial update, and it’s based on sales of real estate within Ashland County.

County auditors across the state must reappraise all their real estate parcels every six years and update their values every three.

The main difference between the two processes is that the three-year update relies on home sale data. The reappraisal is more comprehensive.

Funk said property values across the county increased anywhere from 5% to 45%, depending on separate neighborhoods and communities.

“In my neighborhood, we had a few large sales,” she said.

The letters were mailed Sept. 21 and 22, and specified the percentage of an owner’s increase. The auditor’s office then gave residents the option for “informal reviews” starting Oct. 2-6 and again Oct. 10-13.

Property owners with questions or concerns are encouraged to come to speak to an official at the Ashland County Office Building, 110 Cottage St., from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., Funk said.

Though property values increased by 36% on average, tax rates won’t, Funk said.

“We don’t know what the tax rate is going to be, but it won’t be the same as the property-value increase,” the auditor said.

Factors such as levies for schools, libraries and first responders will play into a specific community’s tax rate.

Funk said tax rates will likely be determined by late December.

Legislative responses

Larger looming tax bills in 2024 have caught the attention of state lawmakers.

A bill introduced Sept. 12 would freeze property taxes of Ohioans 70 or older who make less than $70,000 a year and who have owned their home for 10 years or longer.

Currently, Ohio’s tax commissioner uses the last year of home sales data to determine tax rates.

Another bill, introduced in May, changes that to three years. It would also remove the tax commissioner’s discretion to set property valuation increases.

Legislators have not voted on either bill.

Source : AshlandSource 

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In the last nine years, Carol Schenk of Wichita has seen the assessed value of her home increase from $152,000 to $240,000 — pushing her annual property tax bill from $2,200 in 2014 to more than $3,000 in 2022.

Schenk told lawmakers in a letter earlier this year that the tax on her nearly 30-year-old home is becoming too much.

“I can’t even imagine what my new tax bill will be,” Schenk said, “but I am struggling to afford it right now.”

Many Kansans have lined up at public meetings to say rising property values and the taxes that come with them are out of control. Kansas Republican and Democratic lawmakers have taken notice. But they are proposing rival amendments to the state constitution in an attempt to reel in rising property taxes.

The Republican-backed plan would cap how much property values can increase each year. That would hopefully standardize increases for taxpayers and spare them from large spikes year to year.

The Democratic proposal wants to shift some of the burden of property taxes off of residential homeowners and onto commercial and agricultural real estate. But that will be a tough sell to the Republican leaders of the Legislature who are more business and agriculture friendly.

However, both proposals only address one side of the property tax equation. Neither change would be able to stop local governments from increasing their tax rates. So homeowners could still see a spike in property taxes when their cities and counties raise their mill levies.

Additionally, a tax expert argues big changes to property tax codes can come with unintended consequences that are hard to reverse. Richard Auxier, senior policy associate for the Tax Policy Center, said a better strategy is targeting relief at specific groups, like retired homeowners.

“You would much rather go slow,” Auxier said, “And not overextend yourself, then try and go back and fix something that you’ve done.”

Capping rising value

The Republican plan calls for capping yearly increases to property valuations at 4%.

The amendment passed the Senate with a 28-11 vote, mostly following party lines. The House can consider advancing it to send it to voters during the 2024 legislative session.

Republican Sen. Caryn Tyson said on the Senate floor that many states cap increases to property values, including states from both sides of the political spectrum like Oklahoma and Oregon.

The plan allows for exceptions to the cap, like new construction adding value to the home or when a home is sold. So when someone purchases a house, the suppressed property value for tax purposes will revert to its true assessed value. 

Auxier argues the plan disproportionately benefits people who have owned their home longer than their neighbors. That can mean someone who’s lived in their home for decades paying significantly lower property taxes than someone who just bought a house down the street.

“The person who bought it last year,” Auxier said, “pays an astronomical rate because the government needs to catch up. And so you get these big disparities.”

But Republican Senate President Ty Masterson has the plan is fair because the new homeowner knows they are purchasing a house that will spike in tax value.

Shifting the burden

Meanwhile, the Democratic plan calls for reducing the taxable amount on residential properties. Currently, homes are taxed on 11.5% of their value. The proposal would drop that to 9%.

However, commercial property and agricultural land would not see a similar reduction. So owners of that kind of land would end up paying more in taxes to make up the difference. That’s likely to run into opposition in the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Dylan Lysen

/

Kansas News Service

Democratic Rep. Vic Miller, the minority leader in the House, said the proposal would begin shifting the property tax burden away from homes and onto businesses and agricultural land. He said that’s necessary because homeowners have gradually been taking on more of the property tax burden in the state over the last 30 years.

Kansas voters last changed the property tax code in the state constitution in 1992, when the 11.5% rate was created. That change led to homeowners paying 35% of the total collected property taxes in Kansas, while commercial and agriculture made up the other 65%.

The homeowner portion of the pie gradually increased over the years and now makes up more than half, 56%, while commercial and agriculture paying the other 44%.

Miller said that the proposal would shift the residential portion down, making a 50-50 split between taxes collected from homes and other properties. He said that would help address how home values are rising much faster.

“It’s been shifting over time onto homes away from the other properties,” Miller said. “This would simply make some corrections to that shift.”

The agriculture industry and the Kansas Chamber, one of the largest lobbying groups in the state, oppose the plan unless the similar property tax relief offered to residential homeowners was provided to commercial and agricultural land as well.

Targeted approaches

Auxier argues both plans may be too wide-reaching and could cause a significant decline in tax revenue for local governments that won’t be easy to fix.

He said lawmakers should consider targeted tax policies that help a specific group to make sure they don’t accidentally throw the entire tax structure out of whack.

Some examples of targeted approaches include providing property tax breaks to people who are older than 65 years old or lower income And tax cuts are more useful when they are addressing a specific situation, like helping young families purchase a home or helping retired residents remain in their houses.

“There are numerous ways to limit property taxes,” Auxier said. “But it would be a lot better if you explained why, and who specifically we’re trying to help.”

Source : KCUR

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