The largest proportion of global wealth is held in the residential property market, and it’s been outperforming almost every other asset class.

Any budding investor weighing up their options may consider putting their money into bonds, funds, stocks, gold or even cryptocurrency, among other things, but it is the real estate market that not only has the highest level of investment globally, but has soared in value in the past three years.

The latest research published by Savills shows that the world’s property market was worth a huge £379.7trn as of the end of 2022, with more than three quarters of this to be found in residential property specifically. The sector alone was worth £287.6trn globally by the end of last year.

Further to this, the residential property sector saw a huge 21.1% leap in its value in the three-year period between 2019 and 2022, faring well through various factors that created market turbulence elsewhere, such as the Covid pandemic.

The only asset class to perform more strongly during the three-year time period was gold, which saw its value grow by 26.9%. However, as Savills points out: “The total value of gold is still dwarfed by the value of the real estate markets worldwide.”

Outperforming bonds and equities

Residential property across the globe “significantly” outperformed both bonds and equities over the last three years. Over the past year, the global value of equities has fallen by 20.3%, followed by agricultural land by 11.4% and debt securities by 3.2%.

Across the whole of the real estate sector – including both commercial and residential property – there has been an 18.7% hike in value over the past three years. Commercial real estate was slower to climb, though, with a 14.4% rise in value.

The most valuable real estate market, says Savills, remains China, as it makes up more than a quarter (26%) of the world’s total real estate value. Of course, it is also one of the most highly populated countries in the world, with 1.4 billion people and a vast amount of land space.

The US was the country with the second highest value real estate market, accounting for 19% of the total; but again, it is a large and highly populated country. After this, Japan came in third position, followed by Germany and then the UK.

Savills explains the balance: “Significant real estate wealth is concentrated in Europe and North America. The value of property in these two regions accounts for almost half (47%) of the total value worldwide, despite them being home to just 17% of the global population.

“Asia-Pacific (excluding China), by contrast, has 37% of the world’s population but accounts for only 17% of global real estate value.”

UK residential property hit £8.68trn in 2022

As of the end of 2022, Savills estimates that the total value of UK residential property was a record-high £8.68trn, having grown by 5.1% since the previous year. This comes off the back of accelerated house price growth over the past three years.

Lucian Cook, head of research at Savills, said: “The total value of all housing has risen by almost a quarter (+23%) since 2019, while outstanding mortgage debt went up by a lower +11%. So, while outstanding borrowing increased by £168bn, the growth in the total equity pot was well over nine times that figure at £1.46trn.”

The residential property market in the UK remains an extremely popular asset class among investors. It has continued to perform strongly throughout the past few years, in spite of some major shifts within the economy, and appetite remains strong despite rising mortgage rates.

Estate agency Hamptons recently released a forecast indicating that the market will return to growth from 2025, in what it deems to be the start of a new “property market cycle”, so the total value of UK residential property looks set to continue to climb.

Source : BuyAssociation

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In August last year, the UK government announced that agents and landlords who allow rental properties to be let to migrants who do not have the right to be in the UK will face much larger financial penalties.

The legislation has now come into force this week where landlords could face a £20,000 fine.

Landlords could face prison

The penalties will increase from £80 per lodger and £1,000 per occupier for a first breach to up to £5,000 per lodger and £10,000 per occupier.

Repeat breaches will be up to £10,000 per lodger and £20,000 per occupier, up from £500 and £3,000 respectively.

Current rules mean that as well as facing a heavy fine, landlords could face potential imprisonment for failure to check the occupier’s right to rent status.

Landlords and agents have legal responsibility

All landlords and their agents in England have a legal responsibility under the Immigration Act 2014 legislation to prevent those without lawful immigration status from accessing the private rented sector.

The Home Office says landlords must complete one of these checks before commencing a tenancy:

• A manual right to rent check (all citizens)
• A right to rent check using Identity Document Validation Technology (IDVT) via the services of an Identity Service Provider (IDSP) (British and Irish citizens only)
• A Home Office online right to rent check (non-British and non-Irish Citizens)

Source: Property118

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Outlining her plan at the weekend, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said longer fixed-rate deals would enable people to buy houses with smaller deposits and with lower monthly repayments.

Longer mortgages are common in countries like the US, Canada and Japan, but unlike in some of those, Labour is not proposing they be underwritten by the taxpayer.

Ms Reeves has asked those involved in carrying out a Labour review of financial services to work with the mortgage industry to find ways to remove regulatory barriers and help trigger a broader cultural shift.

Sky News’ Money team asked three industry experts whether they could take off.

Richard Donnell, head of insight at Zoopla, tells Sky News it is a “good idea”, but the challenge will be ensuring rates are as competitive as shorter-term deals, otherwise people won’t be willing to take them out.

The main advantage, he says, would be for first-time buyers.

The risk of high mortgage repayments means purchasers – especially first-time buyers – are finding it harder to get on the ladder. As they struggle to get a mortgage, rents have also been rising, leaving people with less in savings. Combined with historically high house prices, first-time buyers are finding it had to put aside the bigger deposits.

“The advantage of long-term fixes is it means you probably avoid the need to stress-test affordability,” Mr Donnell says.

“I believe the government needs to look at how it can support the market for longer-term rates to develop at rates that will support demand for this type of product, as it’s a big mindset change.”

Would Britons really want to lock in?

Kevin Roberts, managing director at Legal & General Mortgage Services, isn’t convinced as things stand.

“It is worth noting that 25-year fixes are already available in the UK, but receive relatively little interest. Typically, people tend to choose the product that offers the lowest rate at that time, and that’s usually a shorter-term product, such as a two or five-year fix,” he said.

David Hollingworth, a director at L&C, agrees.

“There’s potential to grow this sector but until pricing and tie-ins are addressed they may continue to be a useful niche option rather than a market wide choice,” he said.

Two other major drawbacks

Mr Hollingworth highlights another issue.

“Longer-term fixed deals will often tie the borrower in with an early repayment charge throughout the fixed-rate period,” he said.

So if a mortgage needs to be reviewed at some point, perhaps because someone wants to move house, options become more limited.

“Even though deals can be taken to a new property there is no guarantee that the borrower will still meet the lender criteria at that time, or whether the lender will have competitive rates for any additional borrowing.”

Perhaps more obviously, there is also the concern that rates may fall significantly, as happened after the 2008 financial crisis.

“There may be some concern that they will be left high and dry if rates were to subsequently fall,” says Mr Hollingworth.

What’s already on the market?

The most common longer fix is 10 years. First Direct currently offers a fixed rate of 3.99% over 10 years for a 60% loan-to-value mortgage.

Perenna is a new lender targeting the long-term market, offering rates that are fixed for as long as 40 years but that only tie the borrower in for the first five. They currently offer a 25-year mortgage at 5.75%.

Perhaps recognising the early repayment charge (ERC) issue highlighted above, Kensington Mortgages offers fixed rates for the life of a mortgage and although there are ERCs, they are waived in certain situations – like a house move or sale/repayment.

Who could they benefit?

As discussed, first-time buyers struggling to get on the ladder – but also people who want long-term certainty and perhaps have no intention of moving.

“For example, if they are saving for a wedding in X years’ time, it could be handy to know how much they’ll be able to put away each month if what’s likely to be their biggest expense, their mortgage repayments, stay the same,” says Kevin Roberts, from L&G.

Source: News Sky

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The initiative could be announced in the Spring Budget on March 6 to help those struggling to build up enough savings to buy a home, according to a report in the Independent.

It could see the Government offer banks financial guarantees to encourage them to hand out mortgages covering 99 per cent of a home’s value.

Help: The Government is reportedly considering introducing a scheme that will allow first-time buyers to get on the property ladder with just a 1% deposit

This would be similar to the existing Mortgage Guarantee Scheme, which aims to help those buying homes with 5 per cent deposits.

If it is confirmed, the policy would no doubt be welcomed by some first-time buyers.

However, critics say that it could also push up house prices, and that struggling first-time buyers may not be able to afford the monthly repayments required on such a large mortgage, especially as rates remain relatively high.

How could it help first-time buyers?

There is little detail on the scheme, but in theory it should mean aspiring homeowners will be able to buy their first home with an even smaller deposit.

Someone buying a £300,000 property with a 5 per cent deposit needs to have built up savings of at least £15,000 to get a 95 per cent mortgage.

Under the new scheme, they may need as little as £3,000 – alongside the funds required for a solicitor, surveyor and potentially a mortgage broker.

David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages says: ‘This would likely open up an alternative option for first time buyers struggling to build a deposit.

‘Requiring a smaller deposit could help accelerate the ability to buy, for those that can fund the remainder from mortgage borrowing.’

Path to ownership? Experts say that the rumoured mortgage scheme may be helpful – but only to borrowers who can afford the repayments

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, adds: ‘The 99 per cent mortgages could be a good idea in the appropriate circumstances.

‘With added stamp duty costs, a 99 per cent mortgage can look identical to a 95 per cent mortgage for previous generations.

‘Add in the fact that saving for a deposit while renting is practically impossible, and this could be a solution.’

Will it make property more affordable?

Buyers are likely to find their ability to get a 1 per cent deposit mortgage is dependent on their earnings.

Many first-time buyers are not only priced out of the property market because of the deposit required, but because of how much they are able to borrow.

All mortgage lenders limit borrowers to a maximum loan-to-income ratio.

This is a cap on the amount banks will lend based on the borrower’s annual income. They are able to offer some loans above this level, but there are tight restrictions on how many.

As a general rule of thumb, most first-time buyers will find themselves limited to a maximum of 4.5 times their annual income.

If a single person was buying a £300,000 property with a 1 per cent deposit, they would typically need an annual income of at least £66,000.

David Hollingworth adds: ‘There will still be reasons why this wouldn’t be an option for many, as they may also be limited by the mortgage amount that they can borrow, as well as the challenge of saving a bigger deposit.

‘Lenders will need to see that the mortgage amount is affordable based on income and outgoings and subject to certain income multiple limits.

‘That can see borrowers requiring an even bigger deposit to bridge the gap between the mortgage and the amount that they have to pay for the property.

‘That issue certainly doesn’t disappear at 99 per cent loan to value mortgage, so could affect the number that can take advantage.’

Would it be popular?

There are some doubts over whether many first-time buyers would actually sign up to a 99 per cent mortgage deal.

The average deposit put down by a first-time buyer last year was around 25 per cent, according to UK Finance.

Meanwhile, the average first-time buyer is borrowing at 3.36 times their annual income, which is significantly under the maximum they would typically be allowed to borrow at.

This suggests buyers are keen not to overstretch themselves when it comes to buying their first home.

Are similar mortgages already available?

Skipton Building Society made headlines last year when it launched a 100% mortgage for renters to enable them to get onto the property ladder without a deposit

Skipton Building Society made headlines last year when it launched a 100 per cent mortgage for renters to enable them to get onto the property ladder without a deposit.

Another product that allows first-time buyers to get on the ladder without a deposit is the Barclays Springboard mortgage, which uses equity in a guarantor’s (usually a family member’s) house as collateral.

However, it is thought that there has been limited uptake for these types of products.

Chris Sykes, technical director at mortgage broker, Private Finance, says: ‘My concern is this latest Government scheme is going to give false hope to many where the real ins and outs of the policy will not make it actually feasible.

‘It is worth mentioning that 100 per cent mortgages exist, from Skipton to other schemes where family members can act as guarantor.

‘My issue with these schemes is, just because you can afford rental payments at say £1,500 per month, doesn’t mean that you can afford a mortgage payment at £1,500 per month.

‘This is because home ownership has a number of other costs to consider: building insurance, the property repairs your landlord would have done, and so on.

‘If you were not able to save for a deposit while paying this rent, then can you afford the associated costs of having a property?’

How expensive will they be?

The other concern shared by some across the mortgage industry is the fact these products will likely come with higher rates, given there is greater risk for the lender.

The average five-year fixed rate mortgage rate for someone buying with a 40 per cent deposit is 4.74 per cent, compared to 5.41 per cent for someone with a 5 per cent deposit, according to Moneyfacts.

With virtually no deposit, the price of these mortgages will be reflected in the risk, i.e they will be very expensive Peter Stimson – MPowered Mortgages

That’s the difference between paying £1,139 a month and £1,217 a month, based on a £200,000 mortgage over 25 years.

The rates would probably be higher for those buying with a 1 per cent deposit.

Peter Stimson, head of product at MPowered Mortgages says: ‘We really don’t think 1 per cent deposit mortgages are a good idea. It’s just another gimmick initiative that is doomed to fail.

‘With virtually no deposit, the price of these mortgages will be reflected in the risk, i.e. they will be very expensive.

‘Instead, the Government should be focused on fixing the fundamental issue, which is a lack of housing stock and affordable housing.’

David Hollingworth of L&C Mortgages adds: ‘The guarantee will no doubt carry a cost and that will pull through into the pricing of the mortgage rates.

‘As you’d expect if we do see 99 per cent mortgages we’d expect that interest rates will be higher than for those with bigger deposits.

‘That then makes it a balance of whether the price is worth paying for the increased ability and timeline for buying. With rents so high that higher interest rate could still be worth taking on.’

Threat of negative equity

There are also concerns about the rumoured scheme resulting in more first-time buyers running the risk of falling into negative equity in the future, if house prices fall.

UK house prices recently recorded their fastest annual fall since 2011, according to the Office of National Statistics.

According to the data, the average sold price fell by 2.1 per cent in the 12 months to November 2023.

Negative equity is when a home becomes worth less than the remaining value of the mortgage.

If that happens, the owner may be left unable to remortgage, and in some cases be forced to sell their home to pay the bank.

Rising house prices

Government interventions such as these often appear to add fuel to house prices.

Stamp duty holidays, Help to Buy, Right to Buy and other schemes were also all meant to help more people on to the ladder.

But while many of those initiatives were successful, they also had the effect of pushing up house prices further for those that came after.

Hollingworth adds: ‘The potential downside is that if you boost the demand without improving the supply, you risk pushing prices even higher.

Chris Sykes agrees: ‘I think we’ll have to wait and see where they pitch the scheme, but it is somewhat avoiding the main issue of there not being enough houses.

Source: This Is Money

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Average house prices in the UK will fall by 1% next year as competition increases among sellers, Britain’s biggest property website has forecast.

Sellers were likely to have to price more competitively to secure a buyer in 2024, while mortgage rates would settle down though “remain elevated”, said Rightmove.

A year ago, Rightmove predicted that average asking prices would fall by 2% in 2023. On Monday, the company said the average was 1.3% lower than in 2022 as the property market continued to contend with significantly higher mortgage costs and a cost of living crisis that refused to go away.

The website records asking prices rather than the actual one properties are sold for. It said it was predicting that these would typically be 1% lower nationally by the end of 2024. The market was continuing its transition to “more normal levels” of activity after the busy post-pandemic period, it added.

Rightmove said the number of sellers who had had to cut their asking price during 2023 had risen to 39%, compared with 29% last year and 34% in 2019.

Tim Bannister, a property expert at Righmove, said: “An average drop of 1% in prices reflects our prediction that it’s likely to be another muted, and in parts challenging, year for some buyers and sellers in 2024.” But he added: “The better-than-anticipated activity this year has shown that many buyers are still getting on with satisfying their housing needs, and there is considerable opportunity for sellers and their agents to attract these buyers with the right pricing.”

On Friday, Nationwide building society surprised some observers when it announced that prices were up 0.2% month on month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October and a 0.1% rise in September. However, it said that on a year-on-year basis, prices were down 2% in November.

Last week, the property website Zoopla said market conditions were the best for buyers since 2018, when Brexit uncertainty hung over the market.

There was better news for people having to remortgage next year. The mortgage broker John Charcol predicted on Friday that the rates on some new fixed-mortgage deals could dip below 4% by mid-2024.

Rightmove said average mortgage rates had now fallen steadily since July, “providing movers with much more stability and certainty over the type and cost of mortgage offer they are likely to receive”.

But while the outlook for mortgage rates had improved, with many commentators believing interest rates may have peaked, the property website said: “Affordability remains stretched for many buyers.”

As the Bank of England signals that any cuts to its base rate are not imminent and that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated during 2024, “some buyers’ spending power will remain limited”. said Rightmove.

Source : TheGuardian

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A key player in the housing market has said it expects asking prices to track around 1% lower nationally by the end of next year, as the market continues to normalise after post-Covid freneticism.

Sellers will likely have to price more competitively to secure a buyer next year and agents will have to work harder especially when it comes to first-time buyers as affordability remains stretched, according to Rightmove (RMV.L).

“The housing market is made up of thousands of local markets, each with their own unique dynamic of supply and demand,” said Rightmove’s property expert Tim Bannister. “In areas with more discretionary sellers and fewer homes for sale, we may see new seller asking prices remain flat, or even very slightly increase compared to this year.”

The platform thinks mortgage rates will become more predictable — but remain high, meaning middle-market and lower end buyers will struggle. The average two-year fixed rate is now 5.52% and average five-year rate is 5.11%.

The real estate platform used a predictive model to forecast, based on millions of supply and demand pricing data, as well as a panel of experts.

A year ago, it predicted average new seller asking prices would drop by 2% in 2023, and they are currently 1.3% lower year-on-year.

Looking back at this year, the average time for a seller to find a buyer has jumped from 45 days to 66 days. Meanwhile, some monthly price falls have been greater than the usual seasonal trends this year.

The level of price reductions has increased during 2023, with 39% of properties now seeing a price reduction during marketing compared to 29% last year, and 34% in 2019. New sellers will need to compete with their cut-price neighbours, and work with their agent to start their marketing with a competitive price, rather than starting too high and needing to reduce later.

Research shows that pricing right at the outset maximises the initial impact among local buyers and gives new sellers a much greater likelihood of a successful sale.

Buyers are much more likely to see a choice of homes for sale in their area that suits their needs compared to the stock-starved pandemic years, Rightmove said. Buyers coming to market in 2024 are in a strong position to negotiate on price and take more time to choose the home that’s right for them.

However, the number of available homes for sale has only just increased to pre-pandemic levels and there are no signs of a wave of new listings which would create a glut of homes for sale. With more choice and fewer buyers on the ground, it will be those sellers who are willing and able to price temptingly who will attract buyer’s attention.

Meanwhile, UK house prices rose in November in the third consecutive monthly increase as the market now expects interest rates to start coming down. The average cost of a home rose 0.2% in November from the month earlier to £258,557, Nationwide Building Society said on Friday. From a year ago, prices fell 2%, which was the strongest reading in nine months.

Earlier last week Zoopla published its house price index for November showing houses were being sold at steep discount. In London properties are selling for £25,000 less than the asking prices, while in the rest of the country sellers were lowering prices by £18,000.

Source : YahooFinance

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In recent years, property prices have largely followed a consistent upward trajectory; however the last 12 months have been anything but smooth sailing for the housing market. A combination of factors from rising interest rates, falling property prices, and shaky public confidence have been a perfect storm for the property market that looks to have no sign of ending just yet.

A perfect storm for the housing market

Buoyed by the prospect of falling prices, many wannabe homeowners hoped the predictions of a property crash would finally allow those priced out of the market to get a foot on the property ladder; however, as yet, this hasn’t materialised.

This is because the value of any falls in purchase price have been tempered by the increased cost of borrowing; average falls in sold property prices in 2023 are reported to be around 4%, but with the soaring cost of borrowing, the reality is that buying a property with a mortgage has actually become a more expensive prospect for many. If interest rates are to remain at their current levels, the only way affordability can be improved is if earnings rise or property prices take a meaningful fall.

The problem of uncertainty

An uncertain marketplace creates an environment of low consumer confidence. A property purchase is likely to be among the most significant buying decisions an individual will ever make, therefore, before taking this step, they understandably want to be as sure as possible that they are making a sound investment with their hard-earned money. First time buyers, particularly those with low deposits, are at particular risk of falling into negative equity should they purchase at the start of a sustained period of declining prices. This is making potential buyers much more cautious and therefore much more keen on securing a discount on the listed price.

Goodbye 2023, hello 2024

As we approach the end of 2023, it appears that buyers and sellers have reached an impasse. While buyers are wanting a discount on their purchase to cushion the squeeze on affordability and mitigate the risk of negative equity, sellers are so far reluctant to take a hit on the price they want to achieve.

So what does this mean as we look into 2024? Well, should this stalemate continue, this has the potential to create a property supply shortage as wannabe sellers hold firm. While some property sales are a necessity, such as in the event of death, divorce, or redundancy; many property transactions are optional, fuelled by a want – rather than a need – to trade up or down.

So while those that need to sell may be required to adjust their expectations as a consequence of weakening buyer power, those who do not have to move may well make the decision to stay put and ride out any impending storm.

Adjusting to a changing marketplace

While a stagnant property market is a possibility in 2024, the alternative is that buyers and sellers alike may find they adjust to the ‘new normal’ over the course of the year; for purchasers the new normal means higher interest rates, whereas for sellers the new normal is a reduction in the price that they can command for their property. With revised expectations on both sides, this may be enough to kickstart the housing market once more.

A cooling market or a crash?

It is important to make the distinction between a cooling in property prices and a wholesale property crash. Many experts are predicting house prices will experience a drop in 2024, however, estimates for the scale of this drop are relatively conservative. It is perfectly possible for house prices to fall without the property market suffering a catastrophic crash in the process; for many, this appears to be the most likely scenario as we look forward into 2024.

The housing market does not exist in a vacuum; property prices rising or falling is often something which happens in tandem with something else, be that changes to interest rates, unemployment levels, availability, and population levels. With demand for property ever-changing, and the short-term economic outlook so uncertain, forecasting the future of the property market – something which until recently was easy to predict – is now becoming an increasingly impossible task.

Source : Today’sConveyancer

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UK house prices suffered their first annual decline in more than a decade in September as rental costs rose at a record pace, according to official data.

The average price for a property decreased by 0.1 per cent in September compared with the same month last year, down from a 0.8 per cent expansion in August, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday. This marked the first year-on-year drop since April 2012.

The fall reflects the effect of high mortgage rates on the market as the Bank of England keeps interest rates high in an attempt to weaken demand and lower inflation to its 2 per cent target.

The contraction was “primarily due to the effects of monetary policy tightening on mortgage rates and economic activity more broadly”, said Jake Finney, economist at the consultancy PwC UK.

“While we do not anticipate any [interest] rate rises soon, the impact has not fully been felt yet by homeowners,” he added.

Private rental prices rose by 6.1 per cent year-on-year in October, up from 5.7 per cent in September, the ONS reported, marking the fastest rate since the data series began in January 2016.

High borrowing costs have weakened demand for new homes as more households struggle to afford mortgage payments. At the same time, appetite for rental properties has risen pushing up rents.

Rising rental costs also reflect landlords passing on higher borrowing costs to tenants and a shortage of rental stock.

Karen Noye, mortgage expert at the wealth management company Quilter, said that interest rates “will stay higher for longer causing the slump in buyer demand to be prolonged”.

The sharp fall in inflation to 4.6 per cent has boosted expectations that the BoE will trim interest rates from June 2024. The market expects rates to remain at a 15-year high of 5.25 per cent until then.

The ONS house price index refers to deals finalised in September that may have been agreed several months before. It has a longer time lag than data sets from mortgage providers such as Halifax and Nationwide.

Unlike the other indices, the ONS includes cash purchases, providing a more comprehensive measure of house prices.

Gabriella Dickens, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the ONS house price index would come down in 2024 “with the nadir coming early next year”.

House prices decreased by an annual rate of 2.7 per cent in Wales and 0.5 per cent in England, but rose in Scotland in September, according to the ONS. London reported a 1.1 per cent fall year-on-year driven by contractions in cash and detached house purchases.

London registered the fastest rental price growth in England at 6.8 per cent, setting a new record since the data series began in January 2006.

Anna Clare Harper, chief executive of sustainable investment adviser GreenResi, said: “The only way to reverse the trend of rising rents is for policy to encourage more and better supply, and for professional investors to step into the void that is emerging, as traditional private landlords exit in droves.”

Source : FinancialTimes

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