Clearance rates at 60 per cent or above usually mean prices are rising, while anything below indicates falls.

The lowest clearance rates across greater Melbourne included the inner suburbs (57.3 per cent), inner south (56 per cent), south-east (55.5 per cent), west (49.8 per cent) and Mornington Peninsula (52.2 per cent).

Christopher said these price falls showed vendors were compromising on price to get a sale over the line.

“It is slowly swinging towards a buyers’ market and our forecast for Melbourne is a modest to moderate decline in house prices to continue [in 2024],” he said.

While the market has changed, it’s not all smooth sailing for buyers. Higher interest rates and cuts to borrowing power make it tough for some to make an offer.

CoreLogic’s head of residential research Eliza Owen said conditions were still tough for buyers, who wanted to borrow enough to get into a market where house prices were still high.

However, they, and home sellers could be in a much better position next year if interest rates fall.

“Depending on whether interest rates fall and how much they fall, we may see a flurry of transaction activity when that reduction in the cash rate begins,” Owen said.

Jellis Craig Stonnington partner Michael Armstrong believed Melbourne’s market had shifted in favour of buyers, but only for certain types of properties.

Renovated or new homes are still selling quickly, Armstrong said. There were fewer of these properties on the market, so listings attracted more competition from buyers.

 

Apartments or homes in need of work were offering buyers more time to negotiate and less competition, he said.

“The sale of unrenovated stock is more in favour of buyers because they take a little longer to sell, and buyers can get a better deal – same with land value properties [tear down and rebuilds],” he said.

The changing market has been both a blessing and a nervous time for Danielle North and husband Nick Stebbing, who benefited from the conditions and managed to buy a family home in Brunswick last weekend.

But the couple, both 47, plan to sell the Kingsville house they have owned since 2008, and plan to update it first, to make it more attractive to potential buyers.

 

“I am really nervous about selling,” North said.

“It’s not in a fit state to sell,” Stebbing said. “We’ll have to get a bridging loan to get things moving, and fix it up over the holidays.”

While they were happy with their Brunswick buy, closer to their children’s school, rate rises cut their budget and meant they had to adjust their expectations.

“We had to lower our standards,” Stebbing said. “Mostly places in our price range were not in a good state,” North added.

Wheatley Finance’s Andrew Wheatley, who helped North and Stebbing buy their Brunswick home, said some buyers had to rethink their approach to the market because of higher interest rates.

Some were being forced out of the market, as they couldn’t qualify for a mortgage, meaning there is less competition for more affordable properties.

“In the desirable suburbs of Melbourne, it feels like nothing’s changed,” Wheatley said. “But if you move to what first homebuyers are looking at, properties with a price range of $400,000 to $750,000 like a two-bedroom apartment or a townhouse, or a new build in the outer suburbs, there’s no rush or pressure to buy. I’d say it’s more of a buyers’ market.”

Source : TheAge

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Rescue measures intended to coax mainland Chinese to purchase residential property in Hong Kong have failed to woo buyers, as the financial hub’s property market slump deepens.

It comes six weeks after Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee tweaked official housing policy, lowering purchase duties and weakening disincentives against quick resales.

“My WeChat has been buzzing with inquiries from [Hong Kong-based mainlanders] about the specific [changes], but not a single one is interested in viewing properties,” said a real estate agent surnamed Pan, who has some two decades of experience in Hong Kong.

For the past five years, Pan has focused on so-called Hong Kong drifters, a mostly professional class who plan to be in the city long term and lack permanent residency but may be working toward it. Hong Kong is thought to be home to about 350,000 such people.

On Oct. 25, the chief executive delivered his second policy address, an annual speech that sets the political agenda in the city. Lee adjusted a regime of property controls intended to keep a lid on prices that dates back to the global financial crisis. Two key stamp duties that previously added 30% to a purchase price would be cut in half, he said.

Lee also beefed up talent incentives, announcing certain professionals that move to Hong Kong would not need to pay stamp duty so long as they subsequently obtained Hong Kong permanent residency (HKPR).

For long-term renters from the Chinese mainland, it should all have been good news. But Caixin has found that despite an uptick in the city’s new residential transactions, many still remain hesitant to buy.

“Mortgage rates are too high right now,” said Chen Yuan, a financial services professional who has worked in the city for six years. “There’s no good reason to take out a loan during a property market downturn.” Chen said turbulence in her industry, where her husband also works, was a key factor in their decision to put off buying a house.

Hong Kong’s property market continues to slump as rates rise and capital flees in search of safer investments like fixed deposits. The uncertainty has dented confidence as more potential buyers adopt a wait-and-see posture. A recent UBS report predicts the drop in property prices will reach 5% this year and accelerate to 10% in 2024.

Hong Kong’s property prices remain some of the world’s highest. They rose continuously, with occasional short-term corrections, from the global financial crisis of 2008 up until a historic annual decline in 2022. But the recent shift, and the absence of a sustained post-pandemic bounce, has many investors asking where the market is headed and what a recovery will look like.

Less than expected

Lee’s changes announced in the policy address fell short of market expectations. “This is not even half of what was expected,” said Joseph Tsang, chairman of the Hong Kong branch of global developer giant JLL.

“Over the past year, interest rates have risen significantly, various economies have shown moderated growth and transactions of the local residential property market have declined alongside a downward adjustment of property prices,” Lee said in his address.

He said an expected increase in housing supply in the near term justified easing the measures intended to cool demand. Those measures include three taxes on property sales: the special stamp duty (SSD), the buyer’s stamp duty (BSD) and the new residential stamp duty (NRSD).

Lee said that from Oct. 25 buyers would only need to wait two years before reselling if they wanted to avoid an SSD of 10%. Previously, homeowners were required to wait three years if they wanted to avoid the additional tax.

A continued rise in mortgage rates has discouraged potential buyers from entering Hong Kong’s property market.   © Reuters

Long an attractive place for mainlanders to park their money and hedge against risks closer to home, Hong Kong’s speculative inbound capital had nonetheless come in waves. A key instance was after the 2008 global financial crisis, when quantitative easing made the city’s property market an attractive proposition. The SSD was introduced in 2010 in part to combat that. The BSD followed in 2012 as a tax on purchases by non-HKPRs.

In his October policy speech, Lee also announced that the BSD and NRSD would be cut in half to 7.5%. The change was intended to ease the financial burden of housing purchases on HKPRs and non-HKPRs alike, he said.

Finally, a refundable upfront payment of the BSD and NRSD would be scrapped for “inbound talent,” meaning incoming professionals who eventually obtained HKPR. Lee said this was an “enhancement” of the refund arrangement, introduced last year, under which the cohort did have to pay the duties up front, but were entitled to a refund after they had lived in Hong Kong for seven years and obtained HKPR.

Rosanna Tang, executive director and Hong Kong head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield, said the new stamp duty exemptions for incoming talent were in line with the government’s broader efforts to remove barriers for individuals interested in developing their careers in Hong Kong.

Market carnage

Last year, Hong Kong’s preowned home price index fell 15.6%, with transaction volumes falling nearly 40%. Then, in the first four months of 2023, the property market experienced a rapid recovery after the border reopening with the mainland. From January to April, its preowned house prices rose for four consecutive months.

It would not last. According to data from Cushman & Wakefield, there were less than 9,200 housing sales in the third quarter of 2023, 25% down on the prior quarter and 21% down on the prior year. Edgar Lai, a senior director of valuation and advisory at Cushman & Wakefield in Hong Kong, told press that the third quarter, usually peak transaction season, was the worst he had seen in more than 20 years in the industry.

The strong stock market rebound at the end of 2022 also petered out. Hong Kong stocks have been hemorrhaging since then, disrupting the traditional investment approach of making money on the stock market and investing it in property.

Meanwhile, the continued rise in mortgage rates has discouraged potential homebuyers from entering the market. The U.S. Federal Reserve began a round of successive interest rate hikes from near zero at the beginning in March 2022 to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% in September this year.

Facing the high cost of funds, several major commercial banks in Hong Kong started to raise their prime lending rates for mortgage loans in September 2022. After the latest hike in July 2023, HSBC, Bank of China and Hang Seng Bank currently have a prime rate of 5.875%, representing a cumulative increase of 0.875 of a percentage point. Smaller banks such as Bank of East Asia and Citibank have raised their prime rate to 6.125%.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s tourism and retail sectors recovered less than expected following the city’s reopening. Locals cleared out in favor of tourist destinations abroad. Dampened by the sputtering Chinese economy, few inbound tourists replaced them. In the first eight months of 2023, only 20 million tourists visited Hong Kong, less than half as many as in the comparable period of 2018.

Sellers quick to offload

As U.S. interest rates remain high, the interest on Hong Kong dollar fixed deposits continues to rise steadily. Major banks have all raised their three-month fixed deposit rates to 4.5%, with some smaller banks offering more than 5% interest on large fixed deposits.

Timed deposits, which tend to offer lower returns than stocks and bonds and lack flexibility, have become the de rigueur place to park cash from a housing sale.

Meanwhile developers are struggling with unsold inventory. According to data from Centaline Property Hong Kong, unsold inventory of new private residential properties surged to 20,483 units in the third quarter of 2023, reaching a near 20-year high.

In fact, since the second half of this year, the market has seen a number of residential properties at lower prices. In early August, CK Asset Holdings, the property flagship of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, sold its Coast Line II project in Yau Tong at a discounted price, causing a stir in the primary market.

Road to recovery

In the six weeks since the changes, the transaction volume of new residential properties has noticeably rebounded, but the downward trend in property prices continues.

Between Oct. 25 and Nov. 25, the transaction volume of new residential properties was up by around 2.8 times month-on-month, reaching 678 transactions, according to Centaline.

Meanwhile, an index for private flats from the Rating and Valuation Department fell by 2.2% month-on-month in October, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline.

While the uptick in new housing sales may be related to the policy changes, it could also be down to developers aggressively promoting the sale of new properties at low prices, analysts said.

Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacorp Properties, believes low-cost launches by primary developers will continue to put pressure on preowned home prices.

Chan predicts that with a significant inventory of new residential properties, developers will continue to adopt a “quantity before price” strategy with low-priced launches in December. As a result, homeowners seeking to resell will need to do so at lower prices. He expects Hong Kong property prices to decline by 7% for the full year.

Ken Yeung, head of property research at Citi in Hong Kong, predicted that an improvement in economic conditions and interest rate cuts next year could see Hong Kong property prices bottom out in the first half of 2025.

Source : NikkeiAsia

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Average house prices in the UK will fall by 1% next year as competition increases among sellers, Britain’s biggest property website has forecast.

Sellers were likely to have to price more competitively to secure a buyer in 2024, while mortgage rates would settle down though “remain elevated”, said Rightmove.

A year ago, Rightmove predicted that average asking prices would fall by 2% in 2023. On Monday, the company said the average was 1.3% lower than in 2022 as the property market continued to contend with significantly higher mortgage costs and a cost of living crisis that refused to go away.

The website records asking prices rather than the actual one properties are sold for. It said it was predicting that these would typically be 1% lower nationally by the end of 2024. The market was continuing its transition to “more normal levels” of activity after the busy post-pandemic period, it added.

Rightmove said the number of sellers who had had to cut their asking price during 2023 had risen to 39%, compared with 29% last year and 34% in 2019.

Tim Bannister, a property expert at Righmove, said: “An average drop of 1% in prices reflects our prediction that it’s likely to be another muted, and in parts challenging, year for some buyers and sellers in 2024.” But he added: “The better-than-anticipated activity this year has shown that many buyers are still getting on with satisfying their housing needs, and there is considerable opportunity for sellers and their agents to attract these buyers with the right pricing.”

On Friday, Nationwide building society surprised some observers when it announced that prices were up 0.2% month on month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October and a 0.1% rise in September. However, it said that on a year-on-year basis, prices were down 2% in November.

Last week, the property website Zoopla said market conditions were the best for buyers since 2018, when Brexit uncertainty hung over the market.

There was better news for people having to remortgage next year. The mortgage broker John Charcol predicted on Friday that the rates on some new fixed-mortgage deals could dip below 4% by mid-2024.

Rightmove said average mortgage rates had now fallen steadily since July, “providing movers with much more stability and certainty over the type and cost of mortgage offer they are likely to receive”.

But while the outlook for mortgage rates had improved, with many commentators believing interest rates may have peaked, the property website said: “Affordability remains stretched for many buyers.”

As the Bank of England signals that any cuts to its base rate are not imminent and that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated during 2024, “some buyers’ spending power will remain limited”. said Rightmove.

Source : TheGuardian

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A key player in the housing market has said it expects asking prices to track around 1% lower nationally by the end of next year, as the market continues to normalise after post-Covid freneticism.

Sellers will likely have to price more competitively to secure a buyer next year and agents will have to work harder especially when it comes to first-time buyers as affordability remains stretched, according to Rightmove (RMV.L).

“The housing market is made up of thousands of local markets, each with their own unique dynamic of supply and demand,” said Rightmove’s property expert Tim Bannister. “In areas with more discretionary sellers and fewer homes for sale, we may see new seller asking prices remain flat, or even very slightly increase compared to this year.”

The platform thinks mortgage rates will become more predictable — but remain high, meaning middle-market and lower end buyers will struggle. The average two-year fixed rate is now 5.52% and average five-year rate is 5.11%.

The real estate platform used a predictive model to forecast, based on millions of supply and demand pricing data, as well as a panel of experts.

A year ago, it predicted average new seller asking prices would drop by 2% in 2023, and they are currently 1.3% lower year-on-year.

Looking back at this year, the average time for a seller to find a buyer has jumped from 45 days to 66 days. Meanwhile, some monthly price falls have been greater than the usual seasonal trends this year.

The level of price reductions has increased during 2023, with 39% of properties now seeing a price reduction during marketing compared to 29% last year, and 34% in 2019. New sellers will need to compete with their cut-price neighbours, and work with their agent to start their marketing with a competitive price, rather than starting too high and needing to reduce later.

Research shows that pricing right at the outset maximises the initial impact among local buyers and gives new sellers a much greater likelihood of a successful sale.

Buyers are much more likely to see a choice of homes for sale in their area that suits their needs compared to the stock-starved pandemic years, Rightmove said. Buyers coming to market in 2024 are in a strong position to negotiate on price and take more time to choose the home that’s right for them.

However, the number of available homes for sale has only just increased to pre-pandemic levels and there are no signs of a wave of new listings which would create a glut of homes for sale. With more choice and fewer buyers on the ground, it will be those sellers who are willing and able to price temptingly who will attract buyer’s attention.

Meanwhile, UK house prices rose in November in the third consecutive monthly increase as the market now expects interest rates to start coming down. The average cost of a home rose 0.2% in November from the month earlier to £258,557, Nationwide Building Society said on Friday. From a year ago, prices fell 2%, which was the strongest reading in nine months.

Earlier last week Zoopla published its house price index for November showing houses were being sold at steep discount. In London properties are selling for £25,000 less than the asking prices, while in the rest of the country sellers were lowering prices by £18,000.

Source : YahooFinance

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Melbourne house prices are tipped to rise up to $37,000 in 2024.

But a landlord exodus driven by rising state government taxes that is part of the reason more homes have hit the the market than in any other city over the past year will see the city lag behind almost every other capital.

The PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report has forecast 1-4 per cent for the city’s property market in the next 12 months that could bring the median house price to more than $950,000.

PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said while Melbourne was expected to attract less home price growth than Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, it could potentially double the about $17,000 (1.9 per cent) growth the Victorian capital unexpectedly notched in 2023. They had been forecast to decline 7 per cent this year.

Mr Kusher said despite the fastest increase to interest rates since at least the 1990s, rising costs to build new homes and Victoria accounting for a substantial portion of the nation’s incoming migration would combine to drive home values up.

“The fact we are at or near peak interest rate levels could see more people looking to buy next year,” he said.

Home price growth is on the cards in 2024, but Melbourne will lag behind other capitals.

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While the Outlook report has flagged a tough year for first-home buyers around Australia, Mr Kusher said record-low rental vacancy rates could drive some of them to find a way to buy a home and escape from increasingly uncertain tenancies.

Ironically, their chances might be improved by landlords selling off rental homes at an accelerated level this year, as Melbourne has more homes for sale than any other capital in part thanks to their exodus.

“There are quite a lot of investors looking to exit Melbourne and Victoria because there are quite a lot of taxes,” he said.

From next year, investment property owners will be hit with increased land tax costs as the state government implements a series of levies to try and recoup Covid-era budget losses.

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia Victorian representative Luke Assigal echoed the landlord sell off commentary and said he expected the trend could be even more pronounced as planned new taxes on investment and secondary properties came to fruition in the new year.

Homes like 2 Cunneen St in the Bendigo suburb of Long Gully could be set for price gains in 2024. The home is currently listed for $440,000-$480,000.

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Speaking as part of REBAA’s end of year analysis for 2023, Mr Assigal said he believed even an uptick in investor sales next year wouldn’t slow the market and predicted there could be as much as 6 per cent growth — about $55,000 for Melbourne’s $917,000 median-priced home.

But he said the fate of first-home buyers in the new year could rest with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, who he said could price many back into the market by reducing assessment rates for home loans from the current 3 per cent above the home loan rate of the day.

An interest-rate cut could also drive demand, and Mr Assigal said either scenario could make Melbourne’s undervalued far west, from Werribee to Hoppers Crossing, and outer northern suburbs, like Epping, hot property.

He added that regional areas around Ballarat, followed by Bendigo and Geelong, could also benefit from squeezed homebuyer budgets.

Source : RealEstate.com.au

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Australia’s median property value is now at a record high of $753,654.

But experts are expecting prices to stabilise next year.

Property analytics company CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the 2024 housing market was shaping up to be very different.

“[There are] expectations that value growth will be lower and more diverse from region to region and across housing types,” he said.

“We don’t expect to see a material lift in housing activity until interest rates reduce, and that isn’t likely until the second half of next year.”

But before we get into next year, let’s look at Core Logic’s property figures from November.

What’s the most expensive city to buy in?

Data from CoreLogic says Sydney is still the most expensive place to buy a property, with a median house value of almost $1.4 million.

But in terms of how capital city property prices changed in November, Perth topped the list.

Meanwhile, prices decreased a fraction in Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin.

Here’s a quick rundown of how prices changed in November:

• Perth: Up by 1.9 per cent
• Brisbane: Up by 1.3 per cent
• Adelaide: Up by 1.2 per cent
• Canberra: Up by 0.5 per cent
• Sydney: Up by 0.3 per cent
• Melbourne: Down by 0.1 per cent
• Hobart: Down by 0.1 per cent
• Darwin: Down by 0.3 per cent

Now let’s get a more detailed look at the capital cities:

Adelaide

Monthly change: 1.2 per cent increase

Adelaide median house value: $756,989

Median unit value: $479,428

Since Adelaide property prices bottomed out in March 2023, they have risen 8.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, rental vacancy rates remained extremely tight in November at 0.3 per cent — the lowest of all capital cities.

Brisbane

Monthly change: 1.3 per cent increase

Brisbane median house value: $870,526

Median unit value: $552,332

Alongside Adelaide and Perth, Mr Lawless said Brisbane property values continued to show remarkably low levels of advertised supply while purchasing activity was above average levels.

“This imbalance between available supply and demonstrated demand is keeping strong upward pressure on housing values across these markets, despite the downside factors leading to weaker housing market conditions across the lower eastern seaboard,” he said.

Canberra

Monthly change: 0.5 per cent increase

Canberra median house value: $965,378

Median unit value: $590,425

Darwin

Monthly change: 0.3 per cent decrease

Darwin median house value: $572,504

Median unit value: $380,761

Hobart

Monthly change: 0.1 per cent decrease

Hobart median house value: $702,722

Median unit value: $526,961

Hobart was one of three capital cities to record a decline in values over November, albeit a small one.

Looking at annual figures, Hobart dwellings have recorded a 3 per cent decline.

Meanwhile, rental conditions have eased in Hobart with vacancy rates sitting at 1.9 per cent — the highest across the capitals.

Melbourne

Monthly change: 0.1 per cent decrease

Melbourne median house value: $943,725

Median unit value: $610,490

Melbourne’s home values slipped 0.1 per cent in November, their first monthly decline since hitting the trough in January this year.

Mr Lawless said while the Melbourne Cup Day rate rise took some heat out of the market, there were other factors at play.

“Rising advertised stock levels, worsening affordability and persistently low consumer sentiment are also acting as a drag on value growth in some markets, such as Melbourne.”

Perth

Monthly change: 1.9 per cent increase

Perth median house value: $676,910

Median unit value: $457,296

It’s full steam ahead for Perth property values, rising 1.9 per cent in November — the largest monthly gain since March 2021.

The annual growth rate of property prices is now up 13.5 per cent, eclipsing that of Brisbane (10.7 per cent) and Sydney (10.2 per cent).

Listings are almost 40 per cent below their five-year average for this time of year.

Sydney

Monthly change: 0.3 per cent increase

Sydney median house value: $1,397,366

Median unit value: $836,220

Growth in Sydney home values slowed sharply in November, lifting 0.3 per cent, which is less than half the 0.7 per cent gain recorded in October.

November’s modest rise was also the smallest monthly increase since February this year.

Mr Lawless said he believed Sydney’s housing market could be on course for a dip as early as next month.

What’s the housing market forecast for 2024?

PRD chief economist Diaswati Mardiasmo says things will get “more unaffordable” in the new year but we could see “breakthroughs” towards the end of the year.

She says the outlook will be driven by a number of trends.

“We are going into the new year with low supply and increasing demand, a higher cash rate, lower savings and people prioritising primary needs versus secondary.

“At the same time, governments are trying to stimulate supply and people are also ‘getting used to’ the higher cash rates and changing economic landscape.

“Therefore, the first quarter may not feel any different, other than perhaps some areas starting to see a recovery in house prices.

“This will feel like there’s no hope as everything becomes more unaffordable.

“However, as we innovate through this resilience we will start to see some breakthroughs, all of which we will feel more towards the later part of 2024 as inflation and the cash rate lower.”

Source : ABCNews

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SYDNEY – Australian suburbs are experiencing substantial property price gains, with Sydney leading the charge, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate reaching 4.35%. CoreLogic’s latest data reveals that robust population growth, fueled by international students and migrants, is a significant factor behind this trend.

Eliza Owen from the CoreLogic research team noted that certain Sydney suburbs have seen remarkable yearly increases in property values. Thornleigh recorded a surge of up to 19.7% over the past year, including a 3.3% growth in the last quarter alone. Strathfield also witnessed a similar annual rise, and Five Dock enjoyed an 8.4% uptick.

These figures reflect Sydney’s appeal to overseas newcomers, with the median house price in the city now at $1.397 million. This attractiveness is not just limited to Sydney; other cities are also seeing notable growth due to the influx of migrants. For instance, Melbourne’s Macgregor suburb has experienced an annual rise of up to 19.7%.

In Perth, the suburb of Yokine has enjoyed a significant annual increase of 17.3%, while Adelaide’s Taperoo has risen by 12.7%. This growth comes at a time when Australia’s inflation rate stands at a high of 5.4%, surpassing most OECD countries except New Zealand.

The Treasury is closely monitoring these developments and anticipates that migration could exceed its initial estimate of 315,000 for the fiscal year, potentially adding further pressure to the housing market as demand continues to outstrip supply in key urban centers across Australia.

Source : Investing.com

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“Even though there is a lot of pessimism about the state of inflation and weakening economic conditions, there are also a lot of people with the capacity to buy despite higher interest rates,” she said.

“Some of the upsizers who might be participating in the market may have had longer term capital gains they’re able to spend on the next purchase. Wealthier households and cash buyers such as downsizers are able to participate in the market despite rising rates as well.”

But Owen said the pace of growth was slowing in Sydney and Melbourne as stretched affordability and limits to borrowing capacity started to kick in.

More homes have been listed for sale in the winter and spring, and total listings are now slightly above their historic average, giving buyers a little more bargaining power, she said.

“In Sydney and Melbourne, ongoing price growth is going to be more tested in the months ahead,” she said.

“Seasonally we’re going to see lower volumes and demand. Prices may be affected by the November rate rises. There is a little uncertainty around cash rate expectations.”

But in more affordable cities Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, prices are running at high speed and rising in more than 95 per cent of markets analysed. Total listings remain between a third and 40 per cent below average there, and price growth remains strong.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver noted the shortage of homes compared to demand, which buoyed property prices this year after last year’s downturn.

“There’s a group of people who are less interest rate sensitive, who can access the bank of mum and dad, or had built up a lot of savings and were waiting for prices to stop falling before going in,” he said.

“As more people see prices going up, they’re attracted to the market because they feel they’ll miss out if they don’t get in.”

Even so, he said Sydney prices have been slowing a bit and Melbourne has lagged relative to elsewhere, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide prices stay at record highs.

Auction clearance rates have fallen since autumn, and there is a question mark over the outlook, he said.

“There’s an increasing risk that high interest rates with the still high risk of another hike may start to get the upper hand,” he said.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said strong population growth, particularly from overseas, was helping to push house prices higher.

A tight rental market, made tighter by international students and workers travelling to Australia, was encouraging local renters in Sydney and Melbourne to buy rather than continue renting, he said.

“One of the primary forces supporting housing demand at the moment is strong population growth,” Bloxham said. “We do think population growth will slow down in the next few quarters and that will help in easing house price growth.”

Bloxham said the surprising thing about the current market was the fact interest rates had soared, but house prices were also still rising.

“That’s because of a lot more people in the market,” he said. “It’s offsetting the higher interest rates.”

Source : TheSydneyMorningHerald

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BENGALURU, Dec 5 (Reuters) – Global property prices in most major markets will rise over the next two years, albeit at a slightly slower pace than predicted three months ago as strong demand and tight supply overshadow higher interest rates, a Reuters poll found.

Home prices across the developed world have defied analysts’ expectations, as they predicted at the start of the year prices would register double-digit falls from COVID-19-era peaks. In most markets they will end the year on a positive note.

While price rises are expected to continue into next year and 2025, higher mortgage rates and the lack of supply of affordable homes will restrict prices from rising too much.

The latest Reuters polls of over 100 housing market strategists taken between Nov. 15 and Dec. 4 showed property prices rising in five of the eight major property markets surveyed for next year and in all of them in 2025.

“Values are underpinned at the moment by the fact there’s low stock availability and that is defending prices. The fact prices haven’t fallen very much and actually in many markets are beginning to rise again is down to the fact the stock is very low,” said Liam Bailey, head of research at Knight Frank.

“Very few vendors are bringing their properties forward into the market at the moment because they’re either trying to protect their current debt costs by not moving properties and not porting their mortgages,” he said.

Of the major housing markets polled – U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany and Dubai – prices were forecast to go up between 1.3% to 5% in 2025, while estimates for India were set to surpass 7%.

That outlook was still good news for property owners who at the beginning of the year were anticipating a significant dip in value of their homes over expectations the global economy will enter a recession this year.

But that would also mean affordability will remain a concern, especially for first-time buyers who for years have been waiting on the sidelines to get on the property ladder.

Still, a strong 71% majority, 65 of 91 housing strategists, who answered an additional question said purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers will improve over the coming year.

While many analysts, 51 of 84, who answered a separate question said the supply of affordable homes will improve over the coming two to three years, only 10 among them expected it to improve to a point where it can sufficiently address the demand.

“If you look at construction cost plus land costs, it’s difficult to deliver affordable housing viably. I think lack of housing is probably likely to be a feature of most developed markets…for the medium-term (5 years),” added Knight Frank’s Bailey.

Average U.S. home prices were seen rising 2.7% this year and 1.8% in 2024. That was higher than a September survey where prices were forecast to flat line in both years.

Australian home prices, which have recovered all of their 2022 losses since finding a floor in January, were expected to rise 8.0% this year and another 5.0% next year.

New Zealand property prices were forecast to rise 4.0% next year and 5.0% in 2025 compared with expected rises of 5.0% and 6.0% in an August poll.

While home prices in Germany and Britain were predicted to fall 2.8% and 2.0% respectively next year, in both markets they were forecast to rise around 2-3% in 2025.

The once red-hot Canadian housing market, where prices surged about 50% during the coronavirus pandemic, is expected to stagnate in 2024 and then rise 3.3% in 2025.

Buoyed by demand from high earners, home prices in India will beat consumer inflation to rise 6.8% this year and next.

Source : Reuters

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