While the surge of recent years might be moderating, experts predict a future with steadier home price appreciation, potentially with some regional variations. Mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated compared to historic lows, impacting affordability for some buyers. However, a gradual increase in housing inventory could offer more breathing room for those still in the market.

Let’s find out some of the expert predictions for the next two years in the US housing market. We’ll explore what’s in store for home prices, mortgage rates, and housing inventory.

Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years: Hot or Not?

Forecast for Home Prices:

Home prices have been a major focus in the US housing market, with many wondering if the upward trend will continue. Experts offer a range of predictions, with some nuance depending on location:

• Modest Appreciation: Many analysts anticipate a shift from dramatic price increases to a more moderate pace of appreciation, potentially around 1-3% annually. This is due to the combined effect of higher borrowing costs and a potential increase in available homes.
• Limited Price Dips: A few experts suggest a possibility of slight price dips in some overheated markets, particularly if mortgage rates continue to climb. However, these declines are likely to be minor and localized.
• Regional Variations: Keep in mind that the housing market isn’t a monolith. Predictions may vary significantly depending on the specific region. Areas with strong job growth and limited inventory could see more stable or even slightly rising prices, while slower-growth regions might experience a more pronounced cooling effect.

Forecast for Mortgage Rates:

Mortgage rates have been a key driver of the housing market frenzy, and their recent rise has significantly impacted affordability. Experts offer some insights into what homebuyers can expect for the next two years:

• Rates Likely to Stay Elevated: The consensus among most analysts is that mortgage rates will likely remain above their historic lows. Predictions range from the mid 6 % to the low 7 % range for the next 24 months. This is due to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates.
• Potential for Fluctuations: While a sustained upward trend is expected, some experts predict there could be periods of slight rate fluctuations. This could be influenced by economic data releases or policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
• Impact on Affordability: Higher mortgage rates will undoubtedly impact affordability for some buyers. However, some analysts suggest this could eventually lead to a more balanced market with increased inventory as some buyers may choose to wait for rates to come down.

Forecast for Housing Inventory:

Housing inventory has been a major pain point for buyers in recent years. Low supply and fierce competition created bidding wars and drove prices up. Experts offer some insights into what’s on the horizon for housing inventory:

• Gradual Increase Expected: Many analysts predict a gradual increase in available homes for sale over the next two years. This could be due to several factors:
  • 1. Shifting Market Dynamics: Higher interest rates may incentivize some homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates to stay put. However, others facing life changes or financial pressures might decide to sell, adding to the inventory.
  • New Construction: While not a major short-term solution, an increase in new home construction activity could eventually contribute to a more balanced inventory level.
• Regional Variations: Similar to home prices, the availability of homes for sale will likely vary by region. Areas with strong job markets and limited housing options might see a slower rise in inventory compared to markets with a cooling housing sector.
• Not a Buyer’s Paradise (Yet): It’s important to manage expectations. While an increase in inventory is a positive sign, it’s unlikely to swing the pendulum completely to a buyer’s market in the next two years. The overall supply is likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

For buyers, this could translate to a less frantic buying experience with potentially more time for deliberation. However, competition might still exist, especially for desirable properties.

Predictions for Regional Market Variations:

The US housing market is a complex tapestry woven from numerous regional trends. While national forecasts offer a general outlook, significant variations are expected across different parts of the country. Here’s what experts predict for regional markets:

• Sun Belt vs. Northeast/Midwest: The Sun Belt region (South and Southwest) is likely to see continued growth, albeit potentially at a slower pace. This is due to factors like favorable weather, job opportunities attracting migration, and a larger pool of existing homes. In contrast, the Northeast and Midwest might experience a more pronounced cooling effect, with potentially lower price appreciation or even slight dips in some areas, particularly those with slower job growth.
• Coastal vs. Non-coastal: The affordability gap between coastal and non-coastal areas is likely to widen. Rising interest rates could price out some buyers in traditionally expensive coastal markets, leading to a more balanced market or even price corrections. Conversely, non-coastal areas with a lower cost of living could see continued steady growth.
• Hot vs. Cold Markets: “Hot markets” that experienced explosive price surges in recent years might see a more significant moderation in price growth or even slight declines. Conversely, markets that haven’t seen dramatic price increases might experience more stable or even slightly rising prices, especially if they have strong local economies.

Remember, these are broad regional trends, and specific cities within each region could deviate from them based on local factors like job market strength, new construction activity, and overall housing stock.

Latest Houing Market Snapshot: June 2024

Recent data by N.A.R. provides a clearer picture of the current housing market conditions. Existing home sales faded by 5.4% in June 2024, achieving a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million units. This decline represents a significant drop of 5.4% compared to one year prior.

The median existing-home sales price, however, saw a remarkable rise of 4.1%, climbing to $426,900 in June. This marks the second consecutive month that the price reached an all-time high, and it is the twelfth straight month of year-over-year price gains. All four major U.S. regions reported price increases.

Interestingly, the total housing inventory at the end of June rose to 1.32 million units, an increase of 3.1% from May and a substantial increase of 23.4% year over year. This inventory translates to a supply of approximately 4.1 months at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted, “We’re seeing a slow shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.” As homes sit longer on the market and sellers receive fewer offers, buyers are becoming more discerning, often insisting on home inspections and appraisals. This shift illustrates that while prices are rising, the market dynamics are beginning to stabilize.

Tips to Buy & Sell a Home in These Next 2 Years:

Buyers: Conquering the Market in Higher-Rate Times

The rise in mortgage rates presents challenges for buyers, but there are still strategies to navigate this market:

• Get Pre-Approved: Knowing your budget upfront is crucial. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage gives you a clear picture of your affordability range and strengthens your offer.
• Consider Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): ARMs offer a lower initial interest rate compared to fixed-rate mortgages. However, be aware that the rate can adjust after a set period, potentially impacting your monthly payments. Carefully evaluate your financial stability and long-term plans before considering an ARM.
• Explore Financial Assistance Programs: For first-time homebuyers, various government programs and down payment assistance initiatives can help bridge the affordability gap. Research local and state programs to see if you qualify.

Sellers: Standing Out in a Shifting Market

As the market cools, sellers need to adapt their strategies to attract buyers:

• Price competitively: Conduct thorough market research to determine a fair and competitive asking price. Overpriced homes are likely to sit on the market longer.
• Enhance Curb Appeal: First impressions matter. Invest in landscaping, minor repairs, and a fresh coat of paint to make your home visually appealing to potential buyers.
• Highlight Unique Features: Showcase what makes your property special. Do you have a beautiful backyard, a recently renovated kitchen, or a desirable location? Emphasize these features in your marketing materials.
• Work with a Reputable Real Estate Agent: A skilled agent can guide you through the selling process, offer valuable negotiation advice, and help you navigate the changing market conditions.

Conclusion: Navigating the Evolving US Housing Market

This new landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. For buyers, careful budgeting, exploring different loan options, and potentially waiting for the right moment is key. Sellers need to adapt their strategies by offering competitive pricing and highlighting the unique features of their homes.

Overall, the US housing market remains a complex system with regional variations and ongoing economic influences. While a cautious approach is warranted, the future isn’t all doom and gloom. By understanding the trends and employing strategic planning, both buyers and sellers can navigate this evolving market and achieve their real estate goals.

Source: Norada

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Yet, even as sales stalled amid elevated mortgage rates and home prices, one silver lining emerged—more resale inventory entered the market, which has begun to put some downward pressure on the pace of home price growth.

Other good news for home shoppers is the decline in the median price for a new home—now below the median resale home price—even as builders continue offering incentives to lure buyers.

Nonetheless, experts say the housing market will only see renewed momentum once mortgage rates drop enough to ease buyer affordability obstacles and incentivize homeowners locked in at low rates to move.

Housing Market Forecast for 2024

Experts insist the housing market will improve despite high mortgage rates, out-of-reach home prices and sluggish sales transactions amid dampening demand.

Unfortunately, hopeful buyers continue to see a delay in this yearned-for transformation, thanks to several ongoing headwinds. One is inflation taking its sweet time cooling off, further delaying the Federal Reserve from cutting the federal funds rate.

Mortgage rates indirectly track this benchmark interest rate banks use as a guide for overnight lending. Consequently, with the federal funds rate at its highest level in over two decades, mortgage rates—and borrowers—are feeling the added impact on their ability to afford a home.

Meanwhile, U.S. home prices remain unaffected by persistently high mortgage rates, posting an annual 6.3% gain in April, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Even as this annual gain marked a slowdown from the 6.5% gain in March, the index still broke the previous month’s record high.

Many experts expect a Fed rate cut will help stimulate the housing market, but it remains unclear when—and if—even a single cut will occur in 2024.

Will the Housing Market Finally Recover in 2024?

For a housing recovery to occur, several conditions must unfold.

“For the best possible outcome, we’d first need to see inventories of homes for sale turn considerably higher,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president at online mortgage company HSH.com. “This additional inventory, in turn, would ease the upward pressure on home prices, leveling them off or perhaps helping them to settle back somewhat from peak or near-peak levels.”

Of course, mortgage rates would need to cool off, which seems promising given the recent declines. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained consistent in July, coming in at 6.78% for the week ending July 25, a minor increase from 6.77% the previous week.

However, when mortgage rates finally go on the descent, Gumbinger says don’t hope they cool too quickly. Rapidly falling rates could create a surge of demand that wipes away any inventory gains, causing home prices to rebound.

“Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” Gumbinger says.

He adds that mortgage rates returning to a more “normal” upper 4% to lower 5% range would also help the housing market, over time, return to 2014-2019 levels. Yet, Gumbinger predicts it could be a while before we return to those rates.

NAR To Implement Settlement Agreement Changes in August

Following years of litigation, the NAR has agreed to pay $418 million to settle a series of high-profile antitrust lawsuits filed in 2019 on behalf of home sellers. The settlement received preliminary court approval in April. A judge is expected to grant final approval in November. Meanwhile, NAR announced that the new required practices will go into effect on August 17.

The required new rules prohibit broker compensation offers on multiple listing services (MLS), the private databases that allow local real estate brokers to publish and share information about residential property listings.

Moreover, sellers will no longer be responsible for paying buyer broker commissions—upending an accepted practice that has been in place for years—and real estate agents participating in the MLS must establish written representation agreements with buyers.

If you sold a home in the past ten years, you may be eligible for a small piece of this settlement pie. Visit realestatecommissionlitigation.com for more information about filing a claim.

Housing Inventory Forecast: When Will There Be Sufficient Supply To Reduce Prices?

Despite more resale homes entering the market, the inventory shortage remains severe and likely will for some time, thanks to multiple headwinds.

For one, many homeowners remain “locked in” at ultra-low mortgage rates, unwilling to exchange for a higher rate in a high-priced housing market. Consequently, demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while.

“I don’t expect to see a meaningful increase in the supply of existing homes for sale until mortgage rates are back down in the low 5% range, so probably not in 2024,” says Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a market intelligence and business advisory firm.

New home construction has provided some relief, but not enough to fill the inventory gap meaningfully.

The U.S. remains 4.5 million homes short, up from 4.3 million a year ago, according to Zillow analysis.

Entry-level home supply is particularly dire, contributing to an ongoing cycle of propped-up demand and inflated prices.

Here’s what the latest home values look like around the country.

Home Builder Sentiment Dips

Builder sentiment continues to wilt with the summer heat.

High mortgage rates and sticky inflation are largely to blame for the dampened outlook for new construction, with builder confidence sliding from 45 to 43 in May, according to the most recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the second consecutive month of downward movement and negative sentiment.

A reading of 50 or above means more builders see good conditions ahead for new construction.

Meanwhile, the construction of new homes, which had been on a tear, helping to fill the hole left by scant resale inventory, has slowed.

Permits for new single-family homes fell to their lowest seasonally adjusted annual rate since June 2023 amid builder blahs, dipping 2.9% month-over-month in May, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Housing starts were down 5.2%, and completions slid 8.5% from April.

However, there’s a silver lining for hopeful buyers—25% of builders slashed prices in May to boost sales, and more were open to offering incentives.

Residential Real Estate Stats: Existing, New and Pending Home Sales

Current and anticipated home sales transactions fizzled across the board in May thanks to scorching-high mortgage rates. Here’s what the latest home sales data has to say.

Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales dipped 0.7% in May, according to the latest report from NAR, marking the third straight month of declines as ascending mortgage rates and home prices deterred potential buyers. In May 2023, home buyers could get a mortgage rate well over half a percent lower at a time when homes were also more affordable.

Sales also fell 2.8% compared to May last year.

Experts believe home sales activity will perk up once inflation eases and the Fed finally starts to cut interest rates. Nonetheless, many prospective buyers—particularly first-time and lower-income home shoppers—will likely be left out in the cold, with the median price for an existing home in May soaring 5.8% from a year ago to a new record high of $419,300.

“Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR, in the report. “The mortgage payment for a typical home today is more than double that of homes purchased before 2020.”

One upside to fewer sales is that resale inventory has been loosening since December. The latest NAR data shows inventory growing 6.7% month-over-month, logging 1.28 million unsold homes at the end of March. Still, only 3.7 months of inventory remain at the current monthly sales pace. Most experts consider a balanced market between four and six months.

New Home Sales

Meanwhile, new homes are also not invulnerable to high mortgage rates despite their shiny appeal.

Amid mortgage rates hovering close to or above 7%, May sales of newly constructed single-family houses plunged 11.7% 4.7% compared to April and 16.5% from a year ago, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data.

The good news for prospective buyers is that the slow pace of new home sales puts new home inventory at a level not seen since early 2008, according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

“Buyers that remain in the market are starting to have more leverage, and sellers of existing homes are increasingly offering concessions, including help with closing costs and money toward repairs,” said Sturtevant.

Moreover, those shopping for new construction will be happy to hear that the median price for a new home in May fell $500 to $417,400—nearly two thousand dollars below the median existing-home price.

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More than 70% of “prime central London” properties sold so far this year have been bought entirely in cash, according to a report by estate agents Savills that fuels concerns that rich overseas buyers are snapping up properties at the expense of working Londoners.

A total of 71% of prime central London – an estate agent term for an area that stretches from Chelsea to Camden and Notting Hill to Westminster – have been bought mortgage-free in the seven months from January. That compares with about 35% for the UK as a whole.

It comes as soaring inflation has led the Bank of England to push interest rates to a 13-year high of 5%, which has in turn led banks to raise mortgage rates, making large home loans increasingly difficult to afford.

Frances McDonald, director of residential research at Savills, said: “The established prime markets most synonymous with equity rich buyers are holding up the strongest amid mortgage market turbulence.

“While London’s prime market continues to perform more strongly than expected, the most recent interest rate rises are likely to squeeze buyer budgets and increase price sensitivity, particularly in the more domestic outer prime locations where more buyers are dependent on borrowing. Sellers will need to price pragmatically to align with prevailing buyer expectations.”

The estate agency said that despite concern about the impact of interest rates in the wider housing market, “prime London residential values remained remarkably resilient”.

Prices across London’s prime markets have fallen by 1% compared with this time last year. That compares with a 3.5% fall in UK house prices overall.

Savills said this was because of “a growing divergence between cash and equity rich buyers and other groups in their ability to transact, and between the very top end of the market and lower value segments”.

Prices for the £5m-plus London prime market remain flat (-0.1%), while the £500,000-£1m market has seen some falls (-2.1%), and the under-£500,000 market has fallen further still (-2.5%).

Mayfair, Westminster and Marylebone were the most popular areas with overseas buyers looking for pied-a-terres. “International travel picked up at the start of this year, led by passengers from Asia, the Middle East and the US. While this has translated into increased demand, buyers at the top end remain discerning,” McDonald said.

More than 160 properties worth £10m or more were sold in London in the 2022-23 financial year – the most since 2016 when Brexit spooked the global super-rich from investing in the UK’s “super-prime” market.

A total of 161 such sales – or three a week – were made in the capital in the year to March, according to analysis of Land Registry data by the estate agent Knight Frank and the data provider LonRes.

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