Clearance rates at 60 per cent or above usually mean prices are rising, while anything below indicates falls.

The lowest clearance rates across greater Melbourne included the inner suburbs (57.3 per cent), inner south (56 per cent), south-east (55.5 per cent), west (49.8 per cent) and Mornington Peninsula (52.2 per cent).

Christopher said these price falls showed vendors were compromising on price to get a sale over the line.

“It is slowly swinging towards a buyers’ market and our forecast for Melbourne is a modest to moderate decline in house prices to continue [in 2024],” he said.

While the market has changed, it’s not all smooth sailing for buyers. Higher interest rates and cuts to borrowing power make it tough for some to make an offer.

CoreLogic’s head of residential research Eliza Owen said conditions were still tough for buyers, who wanted to borrow enough to get into a market where house prices were still high.

However, they, and home sellers could be in a much better position next year if interest rates fall.

“Depending on whether interest rates fall and how much they fall, we may see a flurry of transaction activity when that reduction in the cash rate begins,” Owen said.

Jellis Craig Stonnington partner Michael Armstrong believed Melbourne’s market had shifted in favour of buyers, but only for certain types of properties.

Renovated or new homes are still selling quickly, Armstrong said. There were fewer of these properties on the market, so listings attracted more competition from buyers.

 

Apartments or homes in need of work were offering buyers more time to negotiate and less competition, he said.

“The sale of unrenovated stock is more in favour of buyers because they take a little longer to sell, and buyers can get a better deal – same with land value properties [tear down and rebuilds],” he said.

The changing market has been both a blessing and a nervous time for Danielle North and husband Nick Stebbing, who benefited from the conditions and managed to buy a family home in Brunswick last weekend.

But the couple, both 47, plan to sell the Kingsville house they have owned since 2008, and plan to update it first, to make it more attractive to potential buyers.

 

“I am really nervous about selling,” North said.

“It’s not in a fit state to sell,” Stebbing said. “We’ll have to get a bridging loan to get things moving, and fix it up over the holidays.”

While they were happy with their Brunswick buy, closer to their children’s school, rate rises cut their budget and meant they had to adjust their expectations.

“We had to lower our standards,” Stebbing said. “Mostly places in our price range were not in a good state,” North added.

Wheatley Finance’s Andrew Wheatley, who helped North and Stebbing buy their Brunswick home, said some buyers had to rethink their approach to the market because of higher interest rates.

Some were being forced out of the market, as they couldn’t qualify for a mortgage, meaning there is less competition for more affordable properties.

“In the desirable suburbs of Melbourne, it feels like nothing’s changed,” Wheatley said. “But if you move to what first homebuyers are looking at, properties with a price range of $400,000 to $750,000 like a two-bedroom apartment or a townhouse, or a new build in the outer suburbs, there’s no rush or pressure to buy. I’d say it’s more of a buyers’ market.”

Source : TheAge

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Melbourne house prices are tipped to rise up to $37,000 in 2024.

But a landlord exodus driven by rising state government taxes that is part of the reason more homes have hit the the market than in any other city over the past year will see the city lag behind almost every other capital.

The PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report has forecast 1-4 per cent for the city’s property market in the next 12 months that could bring the median house price to more than $950,000.

PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said while Melbourne was expected to attract less home price growth than Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, it could potentially double the about $17,000 (1.9 per cent) growth the Victorian capital unexpectedly notched in 2023. They had been forecast to decline 7 per cent this year.

Mr Kusher said despite the fastest increase to interest rates since at least the 1990s, rising costs to build new homes and Victoria accounting for a substantial portion of the nation’s incoming migration would combine to drive home values up.

“The fact we are at or near peak interest rate levels could see more people looking to buy next year,” he said.

Home price growth is on the cards in 2024, but Melbourne will lag behind other capitals.

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While the Outlook report has flagged a tough year for first-home buyers around Australia, Mr Kusher said record-low rental vacancy rates could drive some of them to find a way to buy a home and escape from increasingly uncertain tenancies.

Ironically, their chances might be improved by landlords selling off rental homes at an accelerated level this year, as Melbourne has more homes for sale than any other capital in part thanks to their exodus.

“There are quite a lot of investors looking to exit Melbourne and Victoria because there are quite a lot of taxes,” he said.

From next year, investment property owners will be hit with increased land tax costs as the state government implements a series of levies to try and recoup Covid-era budget losses.

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia Victorian representative Luke Assigal echoed the landlord sell off commentary and said he expected the trend could be even more pronounced as planned new taxes on investment and secondary properties came to fruition in the new year.

Homes like 2 Cunneen St in the Bendigo suburb of Long Gully could be set for price gains in 2024. The home is currently listed for $440,000-$480,000.

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Speaking as part of REBAA’s end of year analysis for 2023, Mr Assigal said he believed even an uptick in investor sales next year wouldn’t slow the market and predicted there could be as much as 6 per cent growth — about $55,000 for Melbourne’s $917,000 median-priced home.

But he said the fate of first-home buyers in the new year could rest with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, who he said could price many back into the market by reducing assessment rates for home loans from the current 3 per cent above the home loan rate of the day.

An interest-rate cut could also drive demand, and Mr Assigal said either scenario could make Melbourne’s undervalued far west, from Werribee to Hoppers Crossing, and outer northern suburbs, like Epping, hot property.

He added that regional areas around Ballarat, followed by Bendigo and Geelong, could also benefit from squeezed homebuyer budgets.

Source : RealEstate.com.au

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Although Australia’s property market is in the midst of multiple crisis, overseas property seekers are showing their interest, according to PropTrack.

PropTrack’s Overseas Search Report – October 2023 found that buy searches are up 11.5% in the past three months and rent searches are up 7.8%.

Buy and rent searches are now well above pre-pandemic levels and are on track to continue rising now that migration has returned to previous levels, according to PropTrack senior data analyst, Karen Dellow.

Overseas searches for properties on realestate.com.au

In September, The Property Tribune reported that Australia ranked in the top 10 most valuable property markets across the globe.

Renewed interest from China

In the year leading up to September 2020, interest from China severely diminished, falling by 53%.

However, in March 2023, searches for properties to purchase skyrocketed, and returned to pre-pandemic levels. This has also held true for rental searches from China, nearly doubling the volumes seen before the pandemic.

This increase is largely driven by the return of students and migrant workers, according to the report.

In July 2023, arrivals from migrant workers and students hit the highest level since January 2020, averaging around 265,000 new arrivals per month over the last six months.

Furthermore, a quarter of buy and rent searches from overseas come from New Zealand, and their interest has been increasing monthly.

Annual change in buy and rent search volumes from overseas property seekers – September 2023

“Rental searches in particular are a leading indicator of overseas migration and have mirrored the trend of permanent and student arrivals to Australia, illustrating new arrivals’ relationship with the rental market,” said Dellow.

Overseas property seekers are eyeing Melbourne

For the past six months, Melbourne has ranked as the number one searched location on realestate.com.au

“Which is hardly surprising considering it is the first port of arrival for many migrants and is also a major centre of commerce and study,” said Dellow.

The Gold Coast has also attracted a high level of demand from overseas buyers; even among interstate migrants, the Gold Coast emerged as a clear favourite.

Top 20 locations for overseas property seekers

Source : ThePropertyTribune

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Home buyers are spending more than $10,000 per square metre of land for property in Melbourne’s most sought-after, inner-city suburbs.

Those buying further away can get better bang for their buck, and pay less than $300 per square metre in far-flung neighbourhoods, Domain research shows.

Albert Park topped the list as Melbourne’s most expensive suburb per square metre, where buyers are paying a hefty $13,915 per square metre of land. Middle Park was close with a price tag of $12,730.

They were more expensive on this measure than traditional ultra-prestige neighbourhoods, such as South Yarra where the price per square metre is $10,082 and Toorak’s $7944.

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The PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report found Melbourne was set to experience one of the nation’s biggest declines, after prices already tumbled 5.2 per cent last year.

PropTrack’s forecast was based on the assumption the cash rate would rise a further 50 basis points from its current 3.1 per cent level, starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting rates by 25 basis points Tuesday, and another 25 points later in the year — then remain on hold until 2023 ends.

NAB group chief economist Alan Oster last week predicted an 11 per cent drop in Melbourne prices, while Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan forecast a more modest 8 per cent reduction in national house prices.

PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said there was “less urgency to buy and to sell at the moment” in Melbourne.

“I feel, once we stop getting changes to interest rates every month, it will give people more confidence,” Mr Kusher added.

He said if Melbourne prices ended up falling 11.8 per cent, they would be back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Melbourne’s probably most at risk of that happening, just because prices didn’t grow as much there as elsewhere because it spent so long in lockdown,” he said.

As Covid hit Australia in March 2020, Melbourne had a $740,000 median house price and $590,000 median unit price.

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Among those who lost money, the median loss widened to $40,000, compared to $33,500 in the June quarter, CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain Report for the September quarter found.

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