Ocean views, sought-after schools and hardly a property for sale in sight. Some of Sydney’s most tightly held suburbs had only a handful of sales within the past year.

The number of Sydney properties for sale plummeted amid the market downturn and economic uncertainty caused by rising interest rates, further reducing supply in areas with already low turnover – such as prime locations and smaller suburbs.

Waterfront Watsons Bay, Kirribilli and Whale Beach, where houses are in limited supply to begin with, were among more than 80 Sydney suburbs where five or fewer houses traded over the year to March, Domain data shows.

House sales were also limited in similarly small prestige suburbs like Point Piper, Darling Point and Tamarama, which each had between six and 12 transactions.

However, even areas with more housing, such as Bondi Beach, North Manly, Narrabeen and Brighton-le-sands, were among more than 370 Sydney suburbs where house sales slumped below 50, the benchmark used by Domain research to calculate a suburb’s median price.

As were middle ring suburbs like Summer Hill and North Epping, and outer suburbs like Mount Kuring-Gai and Camden.

For apartments, South Coogee, Clovelly, Millers Point, Enmore and Willoughby, were among the suburbs with limited sales.

It comes amid a drop in homes for sale, as sellers hesitate amid falling prices and rising interest rates. While prices have now been rebounding for several months, the number of homes listed for sale in May, was still down 20.7 per cent annually.

Ray White’s head of research Vanessa Rader said properties in prime locations, whether that was a waterfront or beach side position or a family-friendly suburb with good schools, were traditionally tightly held.

“These are typically pockets that have some kind of geographic advantage. You can’t just go recreate that too easily,” she said.

“If someone is selling an asset in these locations, where are they going to move to,” she said, adding this had become a greater concern amid low supply levels.

Rader said would-be sellers held back as prices declined. That then reduced the options for buyers, further deterring homeowners from selling, as they feared they would not find a suitable home to move to.

“It’s hard to find somewhere to buy, and if you have to go into the rental market, the vacancy rate is at a longtime low,” she said.

Uncertainty about the property market and broader economic outlook was also deterring sellers, as was the increasing difficulty of refinancing.

Eastern suburbs agent Ric Serrao, principal of Raine & Horne Double Bay, said traditionally tightly held suburbs had become even more so.

“There’s a percentage of clients who are opportunistic and when they feel the market prices are not on their side they just don’t list,” he said.

Limited supply increased competition for available properties, putting a floor under price declines, and supporting the recent rebound.

“How can something go down, when every time you’ve got a property you’ve got 10 to 15 people turning up,” Serrao said.

It was a similar story in the northern suburbs, where Pello Northern Suburbs principal Michael Dowling has seen listings become even fewer in low turnover suburbs like Denistone and East Ryde, which recorded 40 and 38 house sales, respectively.

“[East Ryde] is a very family orientated area, one of the areas in the Ryde district where all the neighbours seem to know each other … and there’s a lot of older people who have been there since the dress circle estate was built,” he said.

The area was popular with upgrading families from the north shore and inner west, seeking a comparatively more affordable house, in a family-friendly area and a central location.

Deciding to leave such a suburb behind is not easy, as East Ryde sellers Mark Khoo and Andrea Wong know, having recently listed their five-bedroom house to relocate closer to family.

They purchased one of the suburb’s original estate homes 18 years ago, from the property’s first owner, and later rebuilt on the block.

“East Ryde has been perfect for us raising a young family, it’s a very central location, close to schools, shopping centres and amenities, we’ve got lots of lovely neighbours, a strong sense of community and there’s lots of surrounding greenery,” he said.

“It was a difficult decision to decide to sell, but the market seems to be in a healthy state,” he said, adding there had been a strong level of interest so far.

“I think this reflects that it’s a sought after area with not much turnover.”

Dowling added that several months of price growth had given buyers and sellers more confidence to transact.

While listing volumes were still low, there had been a recent uptick in home appraisals across the northern suburbs, which could lead to an increase in homes for sale in three to four months time.

Source : TheSydneyMorningHerald

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According to Knight Frank’s Global Prime Residential Forecast, the projections for prime prices in 2023 and 2024 have been revised upwards. The 2023 forecast was initially 1.7%, revised to 2.4%, while 2024 was initially 2.1%, now 2.5%.

The factors set to shape 2024

The tumultuous 2023 has been characterised by global conflict, soaring inflation and interest rates, and general uncertainty.

But among the expectations for 2024, the report found headwinds may be easing, the proportion of cash buyers rising, and elections are the biggest risk to prime markets for next year.

The report found that cash sales rose from 46% to 52% in the last six months.

Politics and regulations are both a major hurdle and potential boon. On the one hand, tighter controls around energy, sustainability, and holiday letting may be concerns going into 2024, but on the other hand, relaxation of property and tax regulations may be an opportunity.

Upcoming elections include the Indian General Election (before the end of May 2024), US Presidential Election (November 2024), UK General Election (before January 2025), Canadian General Election (Before October 2025), and Singaporean General Election (before November 2025).

The report also found that the increase in demand is expected to be small, likewise the increase in supply, sales, and foreign buyer activity.

Melbourne and Sydney in top ten for price growth forecast

The Sydney luxury property prices are forecasted to rise five per cent next year, fifth behind Auckland, Mumbai, Dubai, and Madrid.

Melbourne came in at eighth in the world, with prime residential property prices predicted to increase by three per cent.

Perth and the Gold Coast are also forecast to see luxury homes rise in value, up four per cent each.

Source: Knight Frank Research.

Knight Frank head of residential research in Australia, Michelle Ciesielski, said cautious optimism was emerging in the luxury residential property market globally, with prime buyers appearing confident that economic headwinds were easing.

“In Australia, buyer appetite is strengthening, while supply of prime properties is constrained,” she said.

“The limited number of exceptional and most desirable prime residential property listings continues to create a price floor under many luxury Australian properties.

“This undersupply of luxury homes is one of the key factors set to shape the performance of the Australian prime residential market in 2024, with inflation and interest rates also set to play a big role.”

Michelle Ciesielski, Knight Frank

“In saying that, in this upper echelon of the market, we are seeing an increasing number of cash buyers, with the proportion being 60% of all prime residential property sales in Sydney and 65% in Melbourne.

“Climate risk, geopolitical tensions and currency shifts are also expected to impact the Australian luxury property market.

“Amongst these risks there are opportunities, however, with property set to continue to appeal as a means to diversify and spread risk, being seen as a safe haven for capital.”

Knight Frank head of residential in Australia, Erin Van Tuil, noted that the super-prime end of the market, especially A$20 million plus, is doing exceptionally well, with no shortage of buyers and limited homes.

“Most buyers are local Australian buyers, with a notable absence of foreign buyers committing to sales, despite enquiries.

“Relative to other Australian cities, Melbourne has counted more prime luxury product built over the past couple of years, which has made prime prices lag the stronger performance in other Australian cities.

“Melbourne is also still recovering from an extended lockdown in the pandemic, with the city seeing many residents move interstate to Queensland and the slower return of international investors which the city relies heavily on.”

Source : ThePropertyTribune

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The housing crisis in Australia continues unabated, with issues such as land scarcity and interest rate rises contributing to the scale of the problem.

Other impediments to homeownership, such as home prices far outstripping wage growth, have further compounded the crisis.

Supply issues especially remain a thorny challenge across the country; Perth’s property market is struggling mightily with this, as property listings on REIWA fell to a 13-year low in June.

Moreover, the national vacancy rate has dropped to a record low of 1.1%.

CoreLogic research director, Tim Lawless, said the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHIC), forecasts the national housing market is likely to be undersupplied to the tune of 106,300 dwellings over the next five years.

However, the addition of granny flat units to dwellings across Australia’s three largest capital cities could go some way toward easing the housing shortage.

“For policy makers and government, granny flats present an immediate and cost-effective opportunity to deliver much needed housing supply within existing town planning guidelines.”

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic research director

“For homeowners, the addition of a second self-contained dwelling provides an opportunity to provide rental housing or additional accommodation for family members, while at the same time, increasing the value of their property and potentially attaining additional rental income.”

Archistar co-founder, Dr Benjamin Coorey, said granny flats present a cost-effective opportunity to boost housing supply for growing capital populations close to existing infrastructure such as railways, bus routes, and major road networks for state and local governments.

“While building regulations for secondary dwellings differ state to state, this unlocks a combination of accessibility and opportunity to fast track affordable housing options for all demographics, particularly essential workers in industries such as the health care sector,” he said.

Archistar, Blackfort, and CoreLogic have assessed every residential block across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane to ascertain how many individual properties have building potential for a self-contained two-bedroom unit.

Sydney’s results

Lawless gave a dire forecast for Sydney’s supply, and said that Sydney’s household formation is forecast to outpace supply from 2025, with the most significant undersupply expected to persist until 2026 at a deficit of 15,900 dwellings.

Sydney is home to the most granny flat development opportunities, however, with 242,081 existing residential dwellings fitting the zoning, land area, and existing home position requirements to build a granny flat, according to the analysis.

The top five council regions for the most granny flat development opportunities were found to be:

• The Central Coast (41,569/17.2% of all potential sites).
• The Northern Beaches (19,884/8.2% of all potential sites).
• Hornsby (18,344/7.6% of all potential sites).
• Blacktown (17,909/7.4% of all potential sites).
• Ku-Ring-Gai (14,617/6.0% of all potential sites).

Melbourne’s results

Although Sydney’s supply outlook is not fortuitous, Lawless said Melbourne’s is set to be even worse.

“Melbourne is expected to face a major housing shortage from 2023 to 2027, with a deficit of 23,800 dwellings, which is nearly twice the anticipated shortfall of 12,100 new dwellings in Sydney during the same period,” he said.

Within Melbourne’s broad regions, the municipalities for the most potential for numerous granny flat development sites were:

• The Mornington Peninsula (23,870/10.4% of all potential sites).
• Casey (16,861/7.4% of all potential sites).
• Monash (13,960/6.1% of all potential sites).
• Knox (13,741/6.0% of all potential sites).
• Manningham (13,063/5.7% of all potential sites).

Brisbane’s results

As a point of difference from the other two capital cities, Lawless said Brisbane’s housing supply shortfall is more imminent at a housing supply deficit of 3,100 dwellings this year.

The top five Brisbane suburbs with the highest potential for granny developments were:

• The Gap (2,986/48.8% of all potential sites).
• Alexandra Hills (2,789/46% of all potential sites).
• Redbank Plains (2,479/30.3% of all potential sites).
• Albany Creek (2,378/44% of all potential sites).
• Rochedale South (2,215/42.3% of all potential sites).

Source : ThePropertyTribune

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According to the Regional Movers Index, 80% of the Aussies who left a capital for regional Australia in the past year came from Sydney.

This is up from the year to September ’22, when the index, powered by CommBank and the Regional Australia Institute, found 60% of capital to region migrants were coming from the NSW capital.

The CPI index showed goods and service prices in Sydney rose another 1.3% from July to September, 5.6% over the year, with housing inflation up 3.3% over the quarter, the biggest increase in the country.

Earlier this year, Muval removalists revealed nearly a third of all outbound enquiries they received were from Sydney, with CEO James Morell saying the cost of living exodus “could be on par with Covid”.

With much of the record recent overseas migration concentrated around Sydney, property prices have been driven back up, and more Aussies are just simply being priced out of living there.

Since bottoming out in January, Sydney property prices have risen 11.6% according to CoreLogic, with the median price for houses and units now at $1,121,196 and $832,222 respectively.

Two Red Shoes mortgage broker Rebecca Jarrett-Dalton says for first home buyers, Sydney is virtually out of reach.

“Even with a healthy budget of $800,000, the price cap for buyers taking advantage of the government’s first home loan deposit scheme, buyers are priced out of most of Sydney’s suburbs,” she said.

“To stay within budget, first home buyers would need to search for properties on the city’s fringes on the west, south-west and as far as the Blue Mountains.”

Where to now?

In the past year, capital city property prices have mostly appreciated faster than regional areas, with demand returning to the big cities after a regional surge during the pandemic.

Lots of this however is due to international migration, and with demand pushing up prices, there’s still a sustained trend of Aussies leaving the city for regional areas, with affordability likely a big factor.

This is one of the factors that could in turn help mitigate price growth in the big cities, with more buyers priced out looking elsewhere, easing demand.

Regional Australia Institute (RAI) CEO Liz Ritchie says capital to regional migration levels are up 11.7% on the pre Covid average, and there’s growing opportunity away from the likes of Sydney and Melbourne.

“In September there were 91,400 jobs advertised in regional Australia, which is partly why we’re seeing such strong migration to our country communities,” she said.

The Index found 39% of Aussies leaving the capital cities moved to regional NSW, up from 26% in the 12 months to September ’22.

The Snowy Valleys Local Government Area (LGA) in southern NSW seems particularly attractive, with net internal migration increasing over 200% over the past quarter.

However, the most popular destination for internal migration was Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, which attracted 16.7% of the total in the year to the September quarter.

Top five regional LGAs by share of internal migration

Top five LGAs by share of capital-regional internal migration

Source : Savings.com.au

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The Australian property market saw new listings leap 9.4% in August, according to the latest Ray White listings report written by Ray White data analyst, William Clark.

This will be music to the ears of many property-buying hopefuls, particularly in view of July’s sauntering pace, but total listing figures are not as rosy. Recent CoreLogic data showed that while new listings rose across winter, total advertised supply levels are still well below last year, across the combined capitals.

Early start to the spring selling season

New listings tend to pick up around spring, while the winter months are typically slower.

However, with the solid uplift in new listings across August, experts have declared that the spring selling season has begun early.

New listings rose again last month

Although new listings petered out in the latter half of 2022, current trends indicate that it will be improbable that 2023 will follow suit.

Indeed, all major cities recorded growth from July, signally how strong this trend was across Australia. Notably, Melbourne and Sydney reported a significant increase in new listings.

The Agency CEO Geoff Lucas told The Property Tribune that listings across the East Coast of Australia were up 22% on last year, with solid momentum in the previous seven days.

“This is in line with our sales growth which is also up 22% on last year and we anticipate that listings growth will continue in the coming months,” he said.

New listings movements for capital cities

Listings in regional Australia followed the same pattern, having recorded the same surge in new listings. Regional Queensland remained the most dominant non-capital city market, with the Gold Coast bringing in substantial new monthly listings.

However, new listings in regional Australia were still trailing behind the low listings of 2022.

New listings movements for regional Australia

Ray White listing authorities, which refer to the point when vendors have signed a listing but the listing is still not advertised, have been essentially unchanged, as authorities did not rise in August as they did in July.

Authorities are considered a strong lead indicator for future listings, having around a week’s lead before authorities become published listings.

Listing authorities

Sydney listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

Sydney’s new listings rose by 11.6% in August 2023, and 5.4% from July last year.

Tallawong and Colebee were the best-performing suburbs in terms of new listings, with stock spiking by 275% and 233%, respectively.

Pemulwuy had the sharpest decline in stock, with an 88% year-on-year (YoY) drop.

Melbourne listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

New listings in the Victorian capital grew month-on-month (MoM) by 17.2% and 5.8% YoY. While regional listings fell YoY, listings improved compared to July’s numbers.

Travancore and Diggers Rest had a 133% and 100% boost in stock, while Box Hill South had a 58% slump.

Brisbane listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

Listings rose MoM, albeit on a lower scale than the same month last year. Listings in regional Queensland followed the same pattern.

Waterford’s stock shot up by 80%, while St Lucia witnessed a 77% reduction in listings.

Adelaide listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

Like in Brisbane, Adelaide’s stock improved MoM, but trailed behind listings the same month last year.

The top growth suburb for Adelaide was Banksia Park, where listings increased by 200%. On the flip side, the top decline suburb was Aberfoyle Park, where stock contracted by 74%.

Perth listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

While Perth’s new listings rose by 6.8% from July, they remained 3.7% under August last year. Regional listings decreased by 7.6% between May and August, and are down by 31.5% YoY.

Forrestdale was the highest-growth suburb, with a 175% increase in listings, while Midvale followed closely with a 150% surge in new stock. Meanwhile, listings in Waikiki shrank by 70%, the most considerable decline in Perth.

Hobart listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

August was an excellent month for Hobart, which saw stocks rise by 14.8%, Australia’s most significant MoM growth. Nonetheless, the new listings are still depressed by 5.8% compared to August last year.

Battery Point had the most significant rise in listings, with 75% more stock available, while Sandy Bay has 38% fewer homes to purchase.

Darwin listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

Darwin’s new listings grew by 26.5% in August but still lagged behind YoY, with a 30.7% decrease from last year.

New listings increased in the top-performing suburb, Parap, by 25%. Bakewell had the steepest decline in listings, with a 73% fall.

Canberra listings

Top growth and decline suburbs

New listings soared by 31.2% MoM and 11.5% YoY in Canberra.

Harrison led the pack with a 175% YoY jump in listings, while Mawson had the highest decrease of 64%.

Source : ThePropertyTribune

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Sydney’s chronic housing crisis is costing the economy more than $10bn a year, according to research from the Committee for Sydney thinktank that also found just five major cities around the world were more unaffordable.

Researchers found the costs were being felt most by young Sydneysiders at the start of their careers who were affected by an inability to find affordable housing near their work, leading to a costly loss in productivity.

The problem is so severe that it threatens to hasten brain drain and squash the city’s startup ecosystem, making it even harder for people with business ideas to make them a reality and costing the city an estimated $2.9bn a year.

Inefficient commutes alone cost the city $2.5bn a year in lost productivity, according to the committee, with women worse off due to the “spatial leash”, meaning they often have to work closer to home.

Benchmarked against other major metropolises, the report found Sydney met the three key chronic unaffordability metrics and required immediate and bold interventions.

The city’s median property price has surged to 13.3 times the median income; 35.3% of renters are in housing stress and the city is ranked the sixth-least affordable city, beating New York and London. Only Hong Kong, San Francisco, Singapore, Vancouver and Tel Aviv were less affordable.

The committee’s head, Eamon Waterford, said the level of housing stress necessitated a major rethink from politicians and the public.

“If we measure politicians on an electoral cycle … will they solve housing affordability in the next four years? The answer is unequivocally no,” he said. “It is about identifying – what are the levers that we pull in the next series of years that are going to set us on the right path?

“You could look at it similarly to the way we think about climate change. You can’t solve climate change in a single electoral cycle.”

Estelle Grech, the committee’s planning and housing policy head, said the report was about showing the financial impact of the housing crisis and encouraging bold action.

“What we’re trying to do with the big figure and the research … is give government licence to make big bold, unpopular at times decisions, but decisions that need to be made,” she said.

“This is a big issue and we need a big response.”

The committee’s recommendations included inclusionary zoning targets for affordable housing in new developments, investing in “much more” social and affordable housing and increasing housing supply with transport, schools and childcare.

Waterford said the Minns government’s initial housing announcements were a “good first step, but they’re only a first step”, as were pledges made by the federal government.

The New South Wales government has acknowledged the dire situation for the state’s most needy after the priority social housing waitlist doubled in less than a decade and surged by 1,000 to 7,573 over the past year.

Waterford also urged the public to become more active in calling for more development.

“Support growth in your local community, become a yimby, show up to council meetings and speak on behalf of development that’s going to see significant numbers of houses being built into communities,” he said. Yimby, short for “yes in my back yard”, is a term adopted by those in support of development.

Waterford added: “Speak to your neighbors about the existential challenge, recognise that building housing for people that are different to you is a really good outcome for your community because that diversity breeds vibrancy.”

The alarm has been sounded after Guardian Australia revealed Sydney apartment buildings were being acquired by developers, demolished and replaced with luxury homes, resulting in a net loss of dwellings.

Source : TheGuardian

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Sydney’s most pricey rentals are set to get even more expensive, with the city’s luxury rental growth having shot up from 11.7% to 13.1% when compared to the last quarter, deviating from the worldwide slump in rental growth, according to Knight Frank’s latest report.

Prime rents down, but still elevated

Average prime rents in major world cities were increasing rapidly, with an annual growth of 7.5% in the 12 months to June, according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Rental Index (PGRI) for the second quarter of 2023.

The PGRI provides quarterly reports of luxury lettings market patterns across 10 major city markets globally.

While the Q2 rate was below the 8.2% seen in Q1 this year and the 12.2% peak in Q1 2022, the present growth is still significantly higher than the norm. To illustrate, the pre-pandemic average annual growth of the 10 years to 2020 was 2.2%.

However, from the beginning of 2021, the market’s recovery from the early shock of COVID-19 has brought about an average growth of 6.6%, thrice the pre-pandemic average.

Knight Frank head of residential research, Michelle Ciesielski, said that the main factors behind the rental growth trend are a high demand from residents returning to cities post-lockdown, buyers being priced out of sales markets due to price rises driven by interest rate increases, and a scarcity of new supply caused by problems in construction throughout the pandemic.

The second runner-up in luxury rental growth

Sydney’s annual luxury rental growth of 13.1% was the third highest, according to the PGRI, behind London’s 14.4%, and Singapore’s 24.5%.

Knight Frank Prime Global Rental Index (Changes to Q2 2023)

Luxury rents in the capital city experienced the most substantial growth over the past six months, at 8.7%, and the second highest growth over the past three months, at 3.2%.

“The overall index has risen by 23% from Q1 2021 to date,” Ciesielski said.

“Growth in specific cities has been even stronger, with New York, Singapore, and London seeing rental growth of 56%, 53%, and 51% respectively over the same period.

“While some of the PGRI growth hubs have seen a moderation in the pace of rent rises, including Singapore, London and New York, and the index overall shows a fall in the pace of rental growth, Sydney is seeing the opposite trend with annual growth increasing compared to the previous quarter.”

Ciesielski remarked that while rental growth will eventually stagnate, the dearth of new stock being delivered means that high rents will remain the norm.

Little hope on the horizon

“A chronic undersupply of rental homes currently extends to most parts of Sydney at every price point, and this continues to be reflected in the double-digit rental growth for luxury property being recorded,” said Knight Frank head of residential, Erin van Tuil.

“In affluent areas, there tends to be at least one home in the street having some type of renovation work done, and many take up a rental home while these works are being carried out. Construction delays over the past few years have meant these prime rental homes are required for double or triple the time than first expected while they wait for tradespeople and prime cost items from around the world to be delivered to finish the job.

“We continue to experience a skills shortage in Sydney, and this extends to the executive level who are most likely going to need a prime residential home provided when lured to work here. Elevated rents are being paid to secure a prime rental home until they settle into the city.

“In the past few months, there has been an increasing number of box office movies being filmed in Australia with actors and production crew using Sydney as their base, placing further pressure on the top end of our rental market.”

Source : ThePropertyTribune

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