Cecil Vega, Author at Amora Escapes https://amoraescapes.com/author/cecil-vega/ Property 101 Wed, 31 Jul 2024 14:04:24 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://amoraescapes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Amora-Escapes-Favico.png Cecil Vega, Author at Amora Escapes https://amoraescapes.com/author/cecil-vega/ 32 32 Is the housing market going to crash? What the experts are saying https://amoraescapes.com/2024/08/27/is-the-housing-market-going-to-crash-what-the-experts-are-saying/ Tue, 27 Aug 2024 13:41:52 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=5293 To the dismay of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing —…

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To the dismay of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing — not even some of the highest mortgage rates of the past two decades — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Are they destined for a fall? Here’s what the experts say about a potential housing market crash.

Market fluctuations

The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing market crash: Home values started rising again. So much for the now-quaint notion that the post-pandemic “housing recession” would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes.

Prices hit another new all-time high in June, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which reports that median existing-home prices were up 4.1 percent over last year — the 12th month in a row of year-over-year jumps. June 2024’s median of $426,900 surpassed May’s record high of $419,300; before that, the record was $413,800, reached in June 2022. (Seasonal fluctuations in home prices typically make late spring the highest-priced time of the year.)

Prices will remain firm and will not decline on a national level.— Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

In another reflection of ongoing increases, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for April was up 6.3 percent from a year earlier, also reaching an all-time high.

Supply and demand

The main driver of record home prices is a one-two punch straight from Econ 101 — a lack of housing supply coupled with strong demand. Inventories have been growing but remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s June data showing a 4.1-month supply. Not even high mortgage rates have slowed price appreciation. For instance, in October 2023, home values held steady even as mortgage rates soared to 8 percent, their highest level in more than 23 years. (They have since dipped, falling briefly below 7 percent before rising above it and then dipping below it again — the average in Bankrate’s weekly survey released July 24 was 6.90 percent.)

The fundamental reason for the run-up in price is heightened demand and a lack of supply.— Greg McBride, CFA , chief financial analyst for Bankrate

“You’re not going to see house prices decline,” says Rick Arvielo, head of mortgage firm New American Funding. “There’s just not enough inventory.”

Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, agrees about the supply-and-demand imbalance. She predicts home prices will keep rising for the rest of this year — welcome news for sellers but not so great for first-time buyers struggling to become homeowners. “We’re not in that space where things are suddenly going to be more affordable,” Olsen says.

In fact, the trend is quite the opposite. According to Realtor.com’s May 2024 Housing Market Trends Report, high mortgage rates have increased the monthly cost of financing the typical home (after a 20 percent down payment) by 7.1 percent since last year. That equates to about $158 more in monthly payments than a buyer last May would have seen — a significant jump.

Taking all this into account, housing economists and analysts agree that any market correction is likely to be modest. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession.

Is the housing market going to crash?

No. There are still far more buyers than sellers, and that means a meaningful price decline can’t happen: “There’s just generally not enough supply,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist at title insurer First American Financial Corporation. “There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

Dave Liniger, the founder of real estate brokerage RE/MAX, says the sharp rise in mortgage rates has skewed the market. Many would-be buyers have been waiting for rates to drop — but if mortgage rates do decline meaningfully, it could send new buyers flooding into the market, pushing up home prices.

“You’ve got an entire generation of pent-up demand,” Liniger says. “We’re in this fascinating position of tremendous demand and too little inventory. When interest rates do start to come down, it’ll be another boom-and-bust cycle.”

NAR’s Yun notes that some once-hot markets, like Austin, Texas, have seen small declines in prices. But he sees little chance of falling prices on a broader scale. “Prices will remain firm and will not decline on a national level,” he said.

Key housing market statistics
  • According to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders, the average mortgage interest rate on a 30-year loan was 6.90 percent as of July 24.
  • Existing-home sales fell 5.4 percent from May to June and also from June 2023 to June 2024, the National Association of Realtors says.
  • The nationwide median sale price in June was $426,900, NAR says. That’s the second all-time high in a row — the highest median NAR has ever recorded.
  • In June, the housing market had a 4.1-month supply of housing inventory, a 3.1 percent improvement over May but still below the 5 to 6 months needed for a healthy, balanced market — one that favors neither buyers nor sellers.
  • A total of 18,574 U.S. homes had foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — in June 2024, according to the latest numbers from ATTOM Data Solutions. That’s down a significant 22.7 percent year-over-year. Illinois had the highest foreclosure rate of any state in June, at one foreclosure filing for every 3,041 housing units.

Back in 2005 to 2007, the U.S. housing market looked downright frothy before home values crashed, with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the recent housing boom has been threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and lingering fears of a potential recession — Bankrate’s most recent economic-indicator survey puts the odds at 32 percent — buyers and homeowners are asking, when will the housing market crash?

However, housing economists agree that it will not crash: Even if prices do fall, the decline will not be as severe as the one experienced during the Great Recession. One obvious difference between now and then is that homeowners’ personal balance sheets are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago. The typical homeowner with a mortgage has stellar credit, a ton of home equity and a fixed-rate mortgage locked in at a low rate — in fact, a New York Times analysis from April found that, at the end of 2023, around 70 percent of U.S. mortgage holders were locked in at rates more than three percentage points below the current market rate at the time.

What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale. “We simply don’t have enough inventory,” Yun says. “Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”

Existing home prices

Economists have long predicted that the housing market would eventually cool as home values become a victim of their own success. After posting a year-over-year decrease in February 2023 for the first time in more than a decade, the median sale price of a single-family home has been on the rise again, recording annual growth for 12 months in a row and reaching the highest price NAR has ever recorded in June 2024.
Overall, home prices have risen far more quickly than incomes. That affordability squeeze is exacerbated by the fact that mortgage rates have more than doubled since August 2021.

Despite prices being high, though, the actual volume of home sales has plunged, and inventories are still too low to meet demand. Homeowners who locked in 3 percent mortgage rates several years ago are declining to sell — and who can blame them, with current rates more than double that? — so the supply of homes for sale is staying tight. As a result, the correction will be nothing like the utter collapse of property prices during the Great Recession, when some housing markets experienced a 50 percent cratering of values.

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash,” Yun said in a statement last fall. “There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Ken H. Johnson, a housing economist at Florida Atlantic University, says the housing market is being pulled in two competing directions. “I think we are in for a period of relatively flat housing price performance around the country as high mortgage rates put downward pressure on prices, while significant demand from household formation and an inventory shortage place upward pressure,” he says. “These forces, for now, should balance each other out.”

5 reasons there will be no housing market crash

Housing economists point to five compelling reasons that no crash is imminent.

  1. Inventories are still too low: A balanced market typically has a 5- or 6-month supply of housing inventory. NAR says there was a 4.1-month supply of homes for sale in June (actually quite an improvement — back in early 2022, that figure was a tiny 1.7 months). This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.
  2. Builders aren’t building quickly enough to meet demand: Home builders pulled way back after the last crash, and they never fully ramped up to pre-2007 levels. Now, there’s no way for them to buy land and win regulatory approvals quickly enough to quench demand, so a repeat of the overbuilding of 15 years ago looks unlikely. “The fundamental reason for the run-up in price is heightened demand and a lack of supply,” says Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “As builders bring more available homes to market, more homeowners decide to sell and prospective buyers get priced out of the market, supply and demand can come back into balance. It won’t happen overnight.”
  3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers: There’s strong demand for homes on many fronts. Many Americans who already owned homes decided during the pandemic that they needed bigger places, especially with the rise of remote working. Millennials are a huge group and in their prime buying years, and Hispanics are a growing demographic also keen on homeownership.
  4. Lending standards remain strict: In 2007, “liar loans,” in which borrowers didn’t need to document their income, were common. Lenders offered mortgages to just about anyone, regardless of credit history or down payment size. Today, lenders impose tough standards on borrowers — and those who are getting a mortgage overwhelmingly have excellent credit. The median credit score for new mortgage borrowers in the the first quarter of 2024 was an impressive 770, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says. “If lending standards loosen and we go back to the wild, wild west days of 2004-2006, then that is a whole different animal,” says McBride. “If we start to see prices being bid up by the artificial buying power of loose lending standards, that’s when we worry about a crash.” Quite the opposite: A recent Federal Reserve survey of senior loan officers reveals that lending standards have actually tightened even further in anticipation of heightened demand when rates eventually drop.
  5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes. Lenders weren’t filing default notices during the height of the pandemic, pushing foreclosures to record lows in 2020. And while there has been an uptick in foreclosures since then, it’s nothing like it was.

All of that adds up to a consensus: Yes, home prices are pushing the bounds of affordability. But no, this boom shouldn’t end in bust.

Source

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Australia to Triple Fees on Foreign Purchasers of Existing Homes https://amoraescapes.com/2024/01/03/australia-to-triple-fees-on-foreign-purchasers-of-existing-homes/ Wed, 03 Jan 2024 01:34:20 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=5160   SYDNEY, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Australia will triple fees on purchases of existing homes…

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SYDNEY, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Australia will triple fees on purchases of existing homes by foreign buyers, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday, as part of measures aimed at increasing the supply of affordable housing.

“Higher fees for the purchase of established homes, increased penalties for those that leave properties vacant, and strengthened compliance activity will help ensure foreign investment in residential property is in our national interest,” Chalmers said in a statement.

The centre-left Labor government would also cut application fees for foreign investment in “build to rent” projects to encourage construction of more homes, Chalmers said.

The government in June pledged A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) to deliver thousands of new affordable homes nationwide, with the aim of boosting public housing supply for Australians on waiting lists.

The changes announced on Sunday will generate around A$500 million ($300 million), which the government could invest in priority areas like housing, Chalmers told reporters in Brisbane, according to a transcript.

“These adjustments are all about making sure foreign investment aligns with the Government’s agenda to lift the nation’s supply of affordable housing,” Chalmers said in the statement, adding the government would introduce laws in 2024 to implement the higher fees.

The fee hike comes after Chalmers last year doubled the fees for foreign investors buying assets in the country, which the government said would generate A$455 million in extra revenue over four years.

Prices in Australia’s housing market, already among the most expensive in the world, are forecast to maintain steady growth as rising demand outstrips supply in the nation of 26 million people.

Source : Reuters

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‘Subdued’ Sums Up the 2023 Commercial Property Market as Weak Global Sentiment Hits Investment https://amoraescapes.com/2023/12/13/subdued-sums-up-the-2023-commercial-property-market-as-weak-global-sentiment-hits-investment/ Wed, 13 Dec 2023 10:57:44 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=5093   Certain events are often tied to a particular word or term. We had two-plus…

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Certain events are often tied to a particular word or term. We had two-plus years of “unprecedented” throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the term “Gubu” will transport those of a particular vintage to another decade, and for 2023, activity within the market will be remembered when the word “subdued” is uttered.

As 2022 came to a close, expectations for 2023 were marked by a sense of caution and observation. This was due to the rapid increase in interest rates, inflation, and the changing dynamics of certain asset classes. Many were eager to see how the office market would evolve in the absence of pandemic restrictions. As predicted, the year began with a “wait-and-see” approach, resulting in lower-than-average investment volumes in commercial real estate. By September, about €1.4 billion had been invested, and it is expected that the year-end figures will reach about €2 billion.

While all sectors experienced declines during the year, short- and long-term outlooks are varied, as sentiment and performance across property types remain bifurcated. The living sector continues to be the most active in Ireland, although fundamentals are more muted, and the strains around borrowing are starting to filter through. Investor sentiment for logistics is still positive even though fundamentals are cooling, propelled by an economy tapering after several years of strong performance. Despite these changes, rents remain at record highs. Additionally, capital values are relatively robust, as seen in the latest JLL Ireland Property Index report. Office pricing and liquidity continue to be under pressure amid weak global sentiment from investors and lenders. The sector has faced several challenges over the past 12 months. However, signs of recovery are evident, with active office leasing requirements in Dublin increasing 57 per cent from the previous year. Furthermore, prime headline rents remain stable for “best-in-class” space.

In 2023 retail differentiated from long-term averages, with a 26 per cent market share in the opening three quarters of the year, its largest market share since 2017. Retail is likely to continue to attract a wide array of investors due to the sector’s favourable returns. Additionally, the fundamentals are steady, with footfall increasing, supported by the recovery in international travel and softening but still resilient labour markets. The sector will probably see some of the market’s more significant one-off deals in 2024, with a few notable shopping centres on the market.

One trend we expect to emerge out of the gate in 2024 is the narrowing of the bid-offer spreads, with vendors selling out of necessity rather than choice.

What’s next?

2024 will be a year when there will be substantial interest in alternative asset classes within the Irish market. In particular, infrastructure, data centres and renewable-energy projects will be at the forefront of funds seeking stable returns that might not be evident in traditional sectors. We have noted in recent months that property funds are beginning to reassess their investment strategies to allow investment in infrastructure that previously did not fall under the property umbrella.

We need to talk about the 48 million square feet elephant in the city

The office market is undergoing a significant reset period, and it is becoming impossible for anyone in the sector to ignore the growing divide between the “best-in-class” properties (estimated to make up about 38 per cent of Dublin’s existing stock) and the rest. It is worth noting that no buildings under construction in Dublin are scheduled for completion after 2026.

The decreasing availability of “best-of-class” properties will present a challenge within the market, as occupiers are increasingly expected to meet ESG targets by 2030. In other words, despite a market size of 48 million square feet and a vacancy rate of 14.4 per cent, there will be a need for more suitable spaces. The effects of this undersupply will become evident by the end of 2025. Buildings that do not adhere to the latest green accreditations are not just at risk of becoming stranded, but rather, they will be stranded.

Rent control

Finally, living investment must be fostered and encouraged to boost the supply of new homes in the country. International institutional investors have been a driving force in creating supply over the past decade, bringing in capital to build that is not available domestically. Rent control, while well-intentioned, has been shown across Europe to hurt the supply of new homes. Rent-control policies that restrict rental price increases without addressing the underlying factors contributing to housing supply and demand imbalances may have limited effectiveness in the face of rising housing demand.

We encourage future housing policies to focus primarily on increasing the construction of new housing. Only when housing supply has met demand will rent controls have the potential to curb excessive rental growth. Adopting a comprehensive approach that integrates rent regulation with proactive measures to stimulate housing construction and foster affordability is imperative. By implementing such a multifaceted strategy, we can attain sustainable housing affordability outcomes for all.

Source : TheIrishTimes

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Short Supply of Homes to Push Global Property Prices Higher at Slower Pace https://amoraescapes.com/2023/12/10/short-supply-of-homes-to-push-global-property-prices-higher-at-slower-pace/ Sun, 10 Dec 2023 10:46:15 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=5084   BENGALURU, Dec 5 (Reuters) – Global property prices in most major markets will rise…

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BENGALURU, Dec 5 (Reuters) – Global property prices in most major markets will rise over the next two years, albeit at a slightly slower pace than predicted three months ago as strong demand and tight supply overshadow higher interest rates, a Reuters poll found.

Home prices across the developed world have defied analysts’ expectations, as they predicted at the start of the year prices would register double-digit falls from COVID-19-era peaks. In most markets they will end the year on a positive note.

While price rises are expected to continue into next year and 2025, higher mortgage rates and the lack of supply of affordable homes will restrict prices from rising too much.

The latest Reuters polls of over 100 housing market strategists taken between Nov. 15 and Dec. 4 showed property prices rising in five of the eight major property markets surveyed for next year and in all of them in 2025.

“Values are underpinned at the moment by the fact there’s low stock availability and that is defending prices. The fact prices haven’t fallen very much and actually in many markets are beginning to rise again is down to the fact the stock is very low,” said Liam Bailey, head of research at Knight Frank.

“Very few vendors are bringing their properties forward into the market at the moment because they’re either trying to protect their current debt costs by not moving properties and not porting their mortgages,” he said.

Of the major housing markets polled – U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany and Dubai – prices were forecast to go up between 1.3% to 5% in 2025, while estimates for India were set to surpass 7%.

That outlook was still good news for property owners who at the beginning of the year were anticipating a significant dip in value of their homes over expectations the global economy will enter a recession this year.

But that would also mean affordability will remain a concern, especially for first-time buyers who for years have been waiting on the sidelines to get on the property ladder.

Still, a strong 71% majority, 65 of 91 housing strategists, who answered an additional question said purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers will improve over the coming year.

While many analysts, 51 of 84, who answered a separate question said the supply of affordable homes will improve over the coming two to three years, only 10 among them expected it to improve to a point where it can sufficiently address the demand.

“If you look at construction cost plus land costs, it’s difficult to deliver affordable housing viably. I think lack of housing is probably likely to be a feature of most developed markets…for the medium-term (5 years),” added Knight Frank’s Bailey.

Average U.S. home prices were seen rising 2.7% this year and 1.8% in 2024. That was higher than a September survey where prices were forecast to flat line in both years.

Australian home prices, which have recovered all of their 2022 losses since finding a floor in January, were expected to rise 8.0% this year and another 5.0% next year.

New Zealand property prices were forecast to rise 4.0% next year and 5.0% in 2025 compared with expected rises of 5.0% and 6.0% in an August poll.

While home prices in Germany and Britain were predicted to fall 2.8% and 2.0% respectively next year, in both markets they were forecast to rise around 2-3% in 2025.

The once red-hot Canadian housing market, where prices surged about 50% during the coronavirus pandemic, is expected to stagnate in 2024 and then rise 3.3% in 2025.

Buoyed by demand from high earners, home prices in India will beat consumer inflation to rise 6.8% this year and next.

Source : Reuters

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China’s Property Sector Needs More Government Support as Crisis Deepens https://amoraescapes.com/2023/12/09/chinas-property-sector-needs-more-government-support-as-crisis-deepens/ Sat, 09 Dec 2023 00:58:03 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=5036   BEIJING — China’s property market, which makes up a substantial chunk of the country’s…

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BEIJING — China’s property market, which makes up a substantial chunk of the country’s economy, needs more government support to prevent it from deteriorating further, analysts said.

Existing home prices fell in October by the most since 2014, while outstanding property loans fell for the first time in history, Larry Hu, chief economist at Macquarie, said in a note Friday.

That indicates increased drags on both the demand and the supply side.

Policy so far has focused on boosting demand. But the government hasn’t “addressed the most important issue: credit risk related to developers,” according to a Macquarie report.

“Without a lender of last resort, a self-fulfilled confidence crisis could easily happen as falling sales and rising default risks reinforce each other,” the report said. “Indeed, some large developers have recently seen their credit risks rising rapidly.”

Beijing has sought to reduce real estate developers’ high reliance on debt to fuel growth, while tamping down on a surge in home prices that has made buying an apartment in major cities prohibitively expensive for many young Chinese households.

UBS analysts estimated that real estate and related sectors now account for about 22% of China’s gross domestic product, down from around 25% levels seen in recent years.

Since November 2022, Chinese authorities have rolled out a raft of measures aimed at improving developers’ access to financing and reducing mortgage rates.

However, real estate behemoth Country Garden still ended up  defaulting on a U.S. dollar bond last month, according to Bloomberg News.

On the homebuyers side, Nomura analysts last week estimated about 20 million units across China have been sold — but not yet completed.

Apartments are typically sold ahead of completion in China. Developers’ inability to finish construction on pre-sold properties prompted many homebuyers last year to stop mortgage payments on homes they had already bought but had yet to receive.

Markets ‘too optimistic’?

Recent figures indicate that property sector troubles are only worsening.

The average price for existing homes across 70 major cities fell by 0.6% in October from the prior month, compared with a 0.5% drop in September, with China’s largest cities leading declines, Nomura analysts said in a report last week citing official data.

That’s concerning since larger cities are expected to have a more sustained demand for homes due to the availability of jobs.

“China’s property sector has yet to bottom out,” the report said. “Markets appear to have been a bit too optimistic about the property stimulus policies over the past two months.”

More high-level signals

Policymakers in the last few days have made an effort to signal more support.

The People’s Bank of China late Friday announced it held a meeting with other financial regulators to allow lending to real estate developers that are “operating normally”, among other signals of support. The authorities also called for developing affordable housing, according to the readout.

“The meeting should help avoid an undesirable contraction of credit extension in the final two months of the year, as financial institutions try to time new loan deals to the new year to engineer a strong start,” Citi analysts said in a report Monday.

“The continued emphasis on supporting real estate financing and LGFV debt resolution will continue [to help] prevent risks [from] escalating,” the report said. “As fragile growth continues to call for an accommodative monetary environment, the meeting is moving along the needed direction while more supports are still needed to boost private sentiment.”

Shares of several major property companies closed higher on Monday, with developer Sunacrising 5.9% in Hong Kong trading.

Source : CNBC

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Aldar Generates $844m as First Two Phases of Dubai Project Sell Out on Strong Demand https://amoraescapes.com/2023/11/24/aldar-generates-844m-as-first-two-phases-of-dubai-project-sell-out-on-strong-demand/ Fri, 24 Nov 2023 14:35:46 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=4950   Aldar Properties, Abu Dhabi’s biggest listed developer, generated Dh3.1 billion ($844 million) from the sale…

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Aldar Properties, Abu Dhabi’s biggest listed developer, generated Dh3.1 billion ($844 million) from the sale of 786 villas and townhouses as the first two phases of its Dubai residential project sold out on strong demand from buyers.

The developer put 468 units up for sale in the first phase of its Haven by Aldar project, and “due to remarkable demand on launch day”, released the second phase with an additional 318 units, it said in a statement on Wednesday.

Overseas and expatriate resident buyers accounted for 77 per cent of sales, with UAE citizens making up the remaining 23 per cent.

Haven, a wellness-focused development, is the first of three new residential communities to be developed in Dubai as part of a joint venture between Aldar and Dubai Holding.

The final phase, which includes villas, townhouses and apartments, will go up for sale in early 2024, Aldar said.

“Hundreds” of people turned up at the company’s sales centres in Dubai and Abu Dhabi for the launch, said Rashed Al Omaira, chief commercial officer at Aldar Development.

The response “confirms our long-held belief that new residential concepts are desired in the emirate by both local and international buyers”, he said.

Dubai’s property market has been growing strongly this year as investor demand continues to boom on economic momentum as well as government initiatives such as residency permits for retired and remote workers, and the expansion of the 10-year golden visa programme.

The emirate recorded 116,116 new property transactions in the first nine months of 2023, up 33.8 per cent annually, the Dubai Land Department said this week.

The value of the deals also increased by 36.7 per cent during the period to about Dh429.6 billion amid continuing growth in the emirate’s economy.

Dubai’s residential market also recorded its highest quarterly price rise in a decade in the July to September period this year, a report released this month by property consultancy ValuStrat found.

The ValuStrat Price Index covering Dubai’s residential market was up 6.1 per cent on a quarterly basis in the third quarter, with villa and apartment prices rising by 7.6 per cent and 4.8 per cent, respectively, during the period.

Aldar said 51 per cent of all buyers for its new project are under the age of 45, “indicating the desire of younger generations to reside in communities focused on health and wellness”.

Female buyers represented 24 per cent of sales and first-time buyers of an Aldar property accounted for 85 per cent of sales.

Construction of the first phase of the Haven development is due to begin in the second quarter of next year, with handovers expected in the third quarter of 2027, Aldar said.

Source : TheNationalNews

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Why the Global Property Market Will Never Return to Pre-pandemic Conditions https://amoraescapes.com/2023/11/23/why-the-global-property-market-will-never-return-to-pre-pandemic-conditions/ Thu, 23 Nov 2023 13:48:40 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=4988   Despite punishing levels of mortgage debt and rental unaffordability causing global property prices to…

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Despite punishing levels of mortgage debt and rental unaffordability causing global property prices to fluctuate, experts predict that house prices around the world are unlikely to return to “normal”.

New research by Oxford Economics has forecast that house prices around the developed world are unlikely to normalise to their pre-COVID-19 rates. While researchers found that house prices have been tapering down in most major global markets this year, they emphasised that this downturn is unlikely to continue further.

Instead of house prices coming down, the firm predicted that housing unaffordability will be corrected by a gradual increase in income.

According to a report by Oxford Economics, authored by senior economist Tamara Basic Vasiljev, houses post-pandemic have been severely unaffordable to purchase but highly profitable to own.

Nevertheless, the research firm insisted that factors aside from a house price reduction will be the more likely contributors to a restabilisation of housing affordability.

When it comes to mortgage rates, the report admitted that mortgages around the world “look punishingly high”, but argued that this alone will not be enough to cause a reduction in house prices.

With mortgage debt levels varying by household and region, Ms Basic Vasiljev reminded market watchers that mortgage rates “might not be relevant for a significant proportion of both households in general and home owners in particular”.

“It might skew other indicators of the housing market, bringing volumes down as people are reluctant to move and negotiate a new mortgage, but it affects house prices less than what you might expect,” she said.

The report also indicated that bank lending standards around the world appear to be on track to ease, especially outside the US.

“It does seem that the worst is behind us in terms of household sector credit,” Ms Basic Vasiljev shared.

She concluded that labour markets, not finance, are the crystal ball for future housing affordability.

“So far unemployment rates have gone up only modestly; real wage growth is positive, though slowing; participation is yet to recover to pre-pandemic trends; and unemployment is no longer a very popular search term in Google trends,” the economist stated.

“This will certainly be a mitigating factor on any financial pressures that the housing markets are experiencing amidst the mortgage rates surge.”

Ultimately, with a global economic slowdown “looming” and housing affordability at record lows, the research firm does not predict a slowing in house prices is on the horizon, in Australia or beyond.

Source : RealEstateBusiness

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Manila’s Luxury Homeowners See Some of the Biggest Price Gains Globally https://amoraescapes.com/2023/11/05/manilas-luxury-homeowners-see-some-of-the-biggest-price-gains-globally/ Sun, 05 Nov 2023 12:55:29 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=4889   Forget about Dubai and Miami, Manila is the new luxury real estate darling and…

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Forget about Dubai and Miami, Manila is the new luxury real estate darling and now lays claim to the fastest-growing high-end property prices in the world, according to a new report from Knight Frank.

Cities in U.S., meanwhile, mainly occupied the lower end of the ranking

In Manila, the capital of the Philippines, luxury home prices rose 21.2% in the year to September, more than any of the other 46 cities included in the analysis, which was released Wednesday in the U.K.

Manilla has a population of more than 13 million across its metropolitan area, according to 2020’s census. The stellar performance of its big-ticket home market is attributed to strong domestic and foreign investment, the real estate firm said.

Dubai, with 15.9% annual growth, was knocked down to second in the ranking. The city’s luxury real estate market has been on a sharply upward trajectory since the start of the pandemic but those gains slowed during the third quarter, with prices rising just 0.7% between July and September.

Knight Frank

Shanghai, Mumbai and Madrid rounded out the top-five fastest-appreciating markets.

Average price growth across all 46 cities ticked up 2.1% in the year to September, more than the annual gains recorded in both the first and second quarters, the report said.

“The improvement in average annual house price growth will be welcomed by prime market homeowners but shouldn’t be overstated,” said Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank. “Higher rates mean we have moved into a world of lower asset price growth—and investors will need to work harder to identify opportunities for outperformance to secure target returns.”

While 67% of markets saw prices rise over the year, only 63% saw an increase over the quarter, “indicating lingering uncertainty, primarily due to the potential for further interest rate hikes,” the report said.

The U.S. dominated the lower end of the ranking. San Francisco experienced a 9.7% annual price drop—the worst annual performance of any of the cities. In New York prices fell 4%, while in Los Angeles values slumped 1.9%.

Source : MansionGlobal

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Australian Pension With $102 Billion Seeks Europe Property Deals https://amoraescapes.com/2023/11/02/australian-pension-with-102-billion-seeks-europe-property-deals/ Thu, 02 Nov 2023 13:29:11 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=4851   Aware Super Pty, one of Australia’s largest pension funds, is hunting for more property…

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Aware Super Pty, one of Australia’s largest pension funds, is hunting for more property and infrastructure deals in Europe as it opens a London office.

Favorable tax and policy settings in Europe were particularly spurring more residential opportunities, Deanne Stewart, chief executive officer of the A$160 billion ($102 billion) fund, said in an interview. The interest comes on the back of Aware’s recent acquisition of a stake in UK build-to-rent developer Get Living.

“Certainly in Europe we are wanting to do more investments in both the build-to-rent, broader property and in infrastructure,” Stewart said in an interview.

The fund is also eyeing opportunities at home, where a dearth of rental properties and collapse of construction firms has created a deepening housing crisis. Aware has committed A$1.5 billion to building 2,000 apartments over the next five years in Australia, where the build-to-rent sector is still fledgling.

“It’s been quite opportunistic,” Stewart said of the local projects. “Where there’s been dips in the market or there’s been a forced seller, we’ve been able to get in and actually get things at quite a low price.”

Australian opportunities could be harder to stack up financially. Developers of build-to-rent properties aren’t able to access favorable tax treatment that community housing providers can, meaning the costs are much higher, Stewart said.

Source : Bloomberg

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RAK Property Projects Sold Out as Zero Tax, Full Foreign Ownership Attract Global Investors https://amoraescapes.com/2023/10/12/rak-property-projects-sold-out-as-zero-tax-full-foreign-ownership-attract-global-investors/ Thu, 12 Oct 2023 12:09:19 +0000 https://amoraescapes.com/?p=4782   Demand for properties in Ras Al Khaimah is growing exceptionally well, mainly driven by…

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Demand for properties in Ras Al Khaimah is growing exceptionally well, mainly driven by investors looking for long-term rental income and short-term holiday home rentals. Numerous private developers are setting sights on the emirate’s real estate market to cash in on the demand, especially after the announcement of the $3.9 billion (Dh14.3 billion) gaming resort Wynn Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah.

Being developed by local partners Marjan LLC and RAK Hospitality Holding, the hospitality and gaming project will attract thousands of visitors from around the world. This project is expected to boost the profile of the emirate, with high-profile investors pumping money into the projects on Al Marjan Island.

SOLD OUT

“It is high time to look at Ras Al Khaimah, especially Al Marjan Island. There is an unprecedented demand from investors for projects coming over there. The entire stocks on the Al Marjan Island have been sold out. And they are offering exceptionally good returns to investments,” said a real estate executive during a conference recently in Dubai.

He pointed out that a strong secondary market is also emerging for the northern emirate’s property market, which is a good sign of the maturity and stability of the market.

In September, RAK Properties sold out phase one of Cape Hayat on the first day of its launch, reflecting the demand for the off-plan is strong. Cape Hayat is located on Hayat Island, Mina Al Arab, and is a luxury collection of residential apartments with direct access to the beach and views across the Arabian Gulf and Hajar Mountains.

John Allen, CEO of valuation and advisory at Asteco, said the increase of large-scale investments in Ras Al Khaimah by local and international hospitality players marked a new phase of development and has had and will continue to have a positive impact on the real estate market.

The emirate’s property market is proving particularly strong, partly due to its relative affordability when compared to Dubai.

“The primary driver of demand is currently from the investment sector which includes investors seeking long-term rental income, short-term holiday home rentals and/or expectations of capital appreciation. The number of first-time buyers has also increased with many long-term residents seeking to gain a foothold on the property ladder,” he said.

Furthermore, there is also increasing demand for secondary homes, from international buyers as well as UAE residents, seeking a local getaway.

OUTLOOK

Going forward, the northern emirate’s property market is predicted to continue its robust growth backed by supporting infrastructure, complementary policies, and a diversified economy. Over the past two decades, the real estate sector has recorded a substantial increase in development activity and a shift in demographics. “The expansion of the RAK’s tourism sector will continue to promote the construction of hotels and resorts, as well as retail, leisure and adventure facilities, boosting residential demand,” said Allen.

According to Obaid Salami, general manager of Dubai Investments Real Estate, investing in Ras Al Khaimah presents a compelling opportunity for several reasons.

“Firstly, RAK offers a strategic location with easy access to major markets in the Middle East and beyond. Its proximity to key transport hubs like ports and airports enhances logistical advantages for businesses. Secondly, it has a business-friendly environment with investor-friendly policies, including 100 per cent foreign ownership and zero taxation. This fosters a competitive advantage for businesses and investors alike,” said Salami.

RAK also boasts a diverse economy, with thriving sectors like manufacturing, tourism, real estate, and renewable energy, providing investors with a range of opportunities to diversify their portfolios.

1,000 NEW UNITS

Most of the new supply is on reclaimed land along the coast, and it represents a significant addition and improvement over existing properties. The coast’s growth as a freehold destination has resulted in a variety of master-planned, waterfront, mixed-use (residential and hospitality) developments, including Al Hamra Village, Mina Al Arab, and Al Marjan Island.

“We anticipate that around 1,000 residential units will be delivered within these developments in 2023-24, representing a significant 10 per cent increase in existing stock. In recent years, there has been a surge in activity within these masterplans, with a slew of new project debuts and construction proceeding at pace,” said Allen.

Some of the most recent launches include Dubai Investments agreement with Al Marjan Island master developer in October-November 2022 to acquire land to develop Dh1 billion Danah Bay, a mixed-use waterfront destination with an area of approximately 90,000 sqm with 40,000 sqm of beach.

The development will have 209 villas, a residential tower with 128 apartments and a 300-key 4-star upper-scale hotel, operated by the Millennium and Copthorne Middle East Holdings. The construction commenced late 2022 and the first phase is earmarked for completion in Q4 2024.

Obaid Salami said the response garnered for Phase 1 is promising and the group aims to keep up the momentum and carve a niche for upcoming projects in the future.

He revealed that Dubai Investments “continues to explore new opportunities and evaluates the market conditions. The group will actively consider possibilities of new projects in Ras Al Khaimah with the aim to contribute further to the region’s growth and provide attractive investment opportunities.”

The launches also consist of Bayviews Residences, a beachfront development comprising studios, 1 BR and 2 BR apartments, located on Hayat Island, Mina Al Arab, launched by RAK Properties in May 2023, and a residential beachfront development on Hayat Island, a collaboration between RAK Properties and Dubai-based Ellington Properties.

Additionally, Al Hamra awarded the main works package for the construction of 502 villas and townhouses on Falcon Island (located within Al Hamra Village) ranging from 2BR to 7BR units and UAE-based Luxe Developers broke ground on Oceano, a twin-tower waterfront development located on Al Marjan Island, comprising 206 apartments over 18 floors.

Moreover, Aldar acquired a beachfront plot located on Al Marjan Island, spanning over 430,000 sqft to develop a residential community comprising a mix of over 2,000 branded and premium residences with access to retail spaces, a beach club and 2km of private beach.

Source : Zawya

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